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Markets are relatively upbeat on Maundy Thursday after President Biden presented a massive tax and spending plan. Worries about vaccine supplies and a lockdown in France are weighing on sentiment. OPEC+ members are set to extend cuts. US jobless claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI are eyed.
US President Joe Biden announced a $2.25 trillion spending plan which includes significant infrastructure spending, green initiatives and other efforts to make the world’s largest economy more competitive. It will be funded with tax hikes, most importantly an increase in the rates corporates pay from 21% to 28%.
The program was well-telegraphed and caused few immediate jitters, especially as it awaits a torturous path in Congress. The S&P 500 Index continued its upward march toward 4,000 while the dollar gained ground, especially against commodity currencies.
US ten-year bond yields have stabilized above 1.70% but below the highs, allowing gold to recover and recapture the $1,700 level.
Biden promised millions of jobs, and the strength of the labor market will be tested via weekly unemployment claims, which are set to extend their drop after hitting 684,000 last week.
The second significant release is ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for March, which serves as a hint toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. It is set to show robust activity in the industrial sector. ADP’s labor market statistics showed a jump of 517,000 private-sector jobs in March
EUR/USD continues hovering around 1.17 has also been hit by German Retail Sales, which missed estimates with an increase of only 1.2% in February. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, dared markets to challenge the ECB and its bond-buying scheme.
Ontario, Canada’s most-populated province, is also bracing for a shuttering amid rising cases, weighing on the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, the Canadian economy grew by 0.7% in January, better than expected.
USD/CAD also awaits the OPEC+ decision on Thursday, which is set to result in extending production cuts. Demand is set to remain subdued due to the ongoing pandemic.
EUR/USD received support near 1.1720 and is trying to gain upside momentum.
EUR/USD received support near 1.1720 and is trying to rebound. If EUR/USD manages to gain some upside momentum, it will head towards the resistance at 1.1750.
A move above the resistance at 1.1750 will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance level which is located at 1.1775. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.1800.
On the support side, EUR/USD needs to settle below the support at 1.1720 to continue its downside move. The next support level for EUR/USD is located at 1.1690. In case EUR/USD declines below the support at 1.1690, it will head towards the next support level at 1.1660.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7595.
A sustained move under .7595 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move is able to generate enough downside momentum then look for the market to possibly accelerate into the December 21, 2020 main bottom at .7462.
A sustained move over .7595 will signal the presence of buyers. This will also put the AUD/USD in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.
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