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New month: November ended with a drop in stocks, correcting only a fraction of the considerable gains recorded during the month. The US dollar bounced back on Monday. After the dust settled, the greenback is on the back foot, equities are upbeat and also gold is edging higher toward $1,800.
GBP/USD has resumed its gains within the range amid upbeat comments about Brexit talks. Negotiators continue talks in London and strive to reach a deal this week. Fisheries and a level-playing field remain the thorny issues.
EUR/USD is trading above 1.1950 after touching the 1.20 level on Monday. The preliminary November Consumer Price Index figures for the eurozone are set to show subdued inflation after German statistics fell short of estimates. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, will speak again on Tuesday and will probably reiterate her commitment to adding stimulus later this month.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the current spread of the virus in prepared comments ahead of Tuesday’s testimony. While he committed to supporting the economy, Powell did not hint if additional bond-buying will be announced later this month
Janet Yellen, Powell’s predecessor at the Fed, was officially nominated as President-elect Joe Biden’s Treasury Secretary. In an initial reaction, she echoed worries about the suffering in the months ahead but vowed to keep the American Dream alive. The most recent figures show yet another record in coronavirus hospitalizations, above 96,000.
AUD/USD has resumed its gains amid US dollar weakness and on the background of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. The RBA left interest rates unchanged at 0.1% as expected.
The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is set to edge down from the highs but remains on solid ground. The forward-looking indicator serves as a hint toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
WTI Crude Oil is battling the $45 level after OPEC+ members failed to reach an agreement on extending production cuts and are set to extend talks in the next few days.
USD/CAD is battling the 1.30 level amid the moves in petrol prices and ahead of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product release. Third-quarter GDP is set to leap by 47.6% annualized after collapsing by 38.% beforehand.
GBP/USD managed to get back above 1.3350 and is trying to get to another test of the major resistance at 1.3400.
GBP/USD made several attempts to settle below the support at 1.3300 but failed to develop sufficient downside momentum. Currently, GBP/USD is trying to get to the test of the major resistance level at 1.3400.
This resistance level has already been tested many times and proved its strength. Most likely, GBP/USD will need additional catalysts to get above this level. These catalysts may include general weakness of the U.S. dollar or positive news on the Brexit front. If GBP/USD manages to get above the resistance at 1.3400, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3485.
On the support side, the nearest support level for GBP/USD is located at 1.3325. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3300. A move below 1.3300 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.3270.
Based on yesterday’s price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s low at .7339.
Taking out .7339 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This won’t change the main trend to down, but if this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the break to extend into the retracement zone at .7331 to .7313. Look for buyers on the first test of this area.
A move through .7313 will indicate the counter-trend selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into the support cluster at .7255 – .7252.
The inability to confirm the closing price reversal top or follow-through to the downside will signal the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a possible retest of .7407.
Overcoming .7407 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Taking out the September 1 main top at .7414 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target the August 9 main top at .7453.
The direction of the February Comex gold futures contract on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $1780.50.
A sustained move under $1780.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $1767.20. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside since the next major support is a price cluster at $1705.20 to $1699.50.
A sustained move over $1780.50 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor 50% level at $1826.00.
Overcoming $1826.00 could trigger an acceleration into $1870.50 to $1894.80. Inside this zone is the minor top at $1884.70.
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