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market review 02 February 21

02 February 21

Economic Data Puts the EUR in the Spotlight, with Capitol Hill also in Focus

Eurozone GDP figures for the 4th quarter puts the EUR in the spotlight. Chatter from Capitol Hill on fiscal stimulus will also draw attention, however.
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.21% to $0.7637, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.10% to $0.7165.
The Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% to ¥104.91 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.
The Eurozone’s 1st estimate GDP figures for the 4th quarter are due out.
With the ECB standing by its growth forecasts for 2021, weaker than forecasted numbers would weigh on the EUR.
Vaccine woes and extended lockdown measures continue to question the ECB and the IMF’s growth forecasts.
Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 news updates to continue to influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.06% to $1.2067.

For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the UK governments progress on the vaccination front in focus.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.3675.

For the USD
It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the markets with direction through the U.S session.
The lack of stats will leave COVID-19 and Capitol Hill in focus.

EUR/USD: Weak recovery could turn into snowballing lower

“A reason to be cheerful is America’s rapid vaccination campaign – which has picked up speed in recent days – and compounds a decline in COVID-19 cases and especially hospitalizations. If America’s engine returns to full capacity sooner, the entire world benefits.”
“The euro may find solace in the fact that the European Union has climbed down the tree in its clash with AstraZeneca, with both sides agreeing to a compromise. Moreover, Pfizer promised more jabs. Nevertheless, the old continent’s immunization attempt is extremely lengthy. Another delay in Europe’s vaccination campaign and the common currency could be knocked lower.”
“Eurozone Gross Domestic Product figures for the last quarter of 2020 may add pressure. The economic calendar is pointing to a decline in output after the third quarter’s rapid recovery, and there are growing fears of a double-dip recession.”
“Critical support awaits at 1.2050, which is a triple-bottom – and the lowest level in 2021. Losing it would send the pair to the lowest in two months. The next levels to watch are 1.20 and 1.1960. Some resistance is at the daily high of 1.2090, followed by 1.2140, which is the convergence of the 50 and 100 SMAs.”

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – RBA Surprise Decision Could Pressure Aussie into .7579 – .7523

Look for the downside bias to continue on Tuesday as long as the AUD/USD remains under the pivot at .7678.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Look for the downside bias to continue on Tuesday as long as the AUD/USD remains under the pivot at .7678.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under .7678 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a break into .7592, followed closely by the short-term 50% level at .7579.
Look for a technical bounce on the first test of .7579. If it fails to hold, the AUD/USD could break sharply into .7523.
Bullish Scenario
Overtaking .7678 will signal the presence of buyers. The first target is .7704. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to up and could trigger an acceleration into the main top at .7764. The main trend will change to up if buyers can take out this level.

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to push toward $1900 on a break above $1875

Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to capitalize on the weekly bullish gap opening on Monday and remained capped near the $1875-76 resistance zone. A modest uptick in the US bond yields prompted some fresh selling around the yellow metal on Tuesday but concerns about COVID-19 vaccine supplies might help limit any further losses for the commodity, FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani reports.
“A sustained move beyond the $1875-76 horizontal resistance should pave the way for an extension of the recent bounce from seven-week lows and push the metal to the $1900 round-figure mark. The momentum could further be extended towards the $1922-24 supply zone en-route the next major hurdle near the $1960 region.”
“The ascending trend-line, currently around the $1845-44 region, might continue to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below will negate the constructive outlook, turning the commodity vulnerable to weaken further below the $1830 intermediate support and slide back to challenge the $1800 mark.”

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