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market review 02 March 21

02 March 21

Economic Data from the Eurozone and the Canada Put the EUR and Loonie in Focus

It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with the EUR and Loonie in focus. First up, however, is the RBA monetary policy decision later this morning.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. The German economy is back in the spotlight, with Eurozone inflation figures also in focus.
From Germany, retail sales figures for January and unemployment numbers for February will provide direction.
A recent pickup in consumer confidence will need to translate into a rise in spending and an improvement in employment figures.
Expect weak numbers to test support for the EUR.
Later in the day, prelim February inflation figures for the Eurozone are also due out. Market sensitivity has picked up, so expect any further pickup in inflationary pressures to influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.09% to $1.2038.

For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats from the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day. In spite of last week’s pullback, downside risks for the Pound will likely remain limited near-term.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.3923.

For the USD
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the markets with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of chatter from Capitol hill and FOMC member commentary on the day.
Biden’s COVID-19 relief package has made its way to the Senate, so expect updates from talks ahead of a vote.
With the markets looking to get a sense on where the FED sits vis-à-vis inflation, FOMC member speeches will also begin to garner greater interest.


Crude Oil Price Update – Sustained Move Under $60.56 Could Create Momentum Needed to Challenge $57.67 – $56.22

The direction of the April crude oil market on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $60.56.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower early Tuesday, following through to the downside after dropping sharply the previous session. The selling is being fueled by profit-taking on concern that OPEC and its allies may agree to increase global supply when it meets later in the week on March 4.
At 03:27 GMT, April WTI crude oil is trading $59.66, down $0.98 or -1.62%.
Market sentiment was also dampened by weak manufacturing data out of China. The world’s second-largest economy reported that activity growth slipped to a nine-month low in February, which may curtail Chinese crude demand and pressure oil prices.
A stronger U.S. Dollar also contributed to the weakness by dampening foreign demand for dollar-denominated crude oil.
The direction of the April crude oil market on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $60.56.

Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $60.56 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at $58.60.
If $58.60 fails as support then look for the break to possibly continue into the short-term 50% level at $57.67, followed by the main bottom at $56.31. Taking out this level will change the main trend to down with the short-term Fibonacci level at $56.22 the next target.

Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $60.56 will signal the return of buyers. The first target will be $61.63. However, this level will drop as the market moves lower. Essentially, we could see a 50% retracement of the first leg down.

GBP/USD: Corrective decline could extend to 1.3850 – UOB

24-hour view: “We expected GBP to ‘consolidate and trade within a 1.3920/1.4030 range’ yesterday. GBP traded between 1.3905 and 1.3999 before closing little changed at 1.3926 (+0.02%). Downward momentum has improved a tad and GBP could edge below last week’s low at 1.3890. In view of the lackluster momentum, any further decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 1.3850. Resistance is at 1.3960 followed by 1.3990.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last yesterday (01 Mar, spot at 1.3975). As highlighted, the current movement is viewed as the early stages of a corrective pullback. Any pullback is likely limited to a test of 1.3850 for now. On the upside, a break of 1.4050 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.4110) would indicate the downside risk has dissipated.”

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Canadian Dollar Rebounds At The Start Of The Week

USD/CAD settled below the support at 1.2700 and is trying to settle below the next support level at 1.2665.
USD to CAD is currently testing the nearest support level which is located near the 20 EMA at 1.2665. If this test is successful, USD to CAD will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 1.2625. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
If USD to CAD declines below the support at 1.2625, it will move towards the next support level which is located at 1.2590.
On the upside, USD to CAD needs to stay above the 20 EMA to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for USD to CAD is located at 1.2700.
In case USD to CAD settles above the resistance at 1.2700, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.2725. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.2750.

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