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market review 03 February 21

03 February 21

Private Sector PMIs and US ADP Nonfarm Figures Put the EUR and the Dollar in the Spotlight

It’s a busy day on the economic calendar. While stats put the Dollar and the EUR in focus, expect news updates from Capitol Hill to also influence.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.
Italian and Spanish service sector PMI figures for January are due out.
Finalized numbers are also due out, along with composite PMIs, for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
Barring any marked revisions from prelims, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to be the key drivers.
Later in the day, prelim January inflation figures for Italy and the Eurozone will also draw attention.
Expect the Eurozone’s annual rate of inflation to have the greatest impact on the EUR.
Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 news updates to also continue to influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.2048.

For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. January’s finalized services and composite PMIs are due out later this morning.
Expect any marked downward revisions to prelim figures to pin back the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.08% to $1.3679.

For the USD
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.
ADP nonfarm employment change figures are due out along with the market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for January.
Expect both sets of numbers to provide the Dollar with direction.
Finalized Markit survey PMI numbers are also due out but should have a muted impact on the markets.
Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will remain a key area of interest

USD/JPY keeps the positive stance unchanged – UOB

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘while upward momentum has improved a tad, conditions remain overbought and any advance in USD is likely limited to a test 105.15’. Our view was not wrong as USD rose to 105.17 before easing off to close little changed at 104.97 (+0.06%). Momentum is beginning to wane and this coupled with still overbought conditions has increased the risk of a pullback. That said, any weakness is likely limited to a test of 104.70. Resistance is at 105.15 followed by the rather strong level at 105.40.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted yesterday (01 Feb, spot at 104.70) that the ‘positive outlook in USD is intact’ and ‘a break of 105.00 would shift focus to 105.40’. USD subsequently edged a few pips above 105.00 (high of 105.03) before settling at 104.91 (+0.22%). Upward momentum has improved, albeit not by much. The overall positive outlook is still intact but the 105.40 level may not come into the picture so soon. The positive outlook is deemed intact as long as USD does not move below 104.25 (‘strong support’ level previously at 104.00 yesterday).”

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bears challenge critical 21-DMA support

GBP/USD is on the back foot around 1.3650 heading into the London open. The downside appears cushioned for Cable, thanks to the upbeat market mood and a broadly weaker US dollar.
Markets look forward to the UK Final Services PMI, US ADP jobs and ISM Services PMI data for fresh trading impetus. Also, in focus remains the developments around the Brexit issues and US stimulus talks.
Looking from a technical perspective, the bulls have managed to defend the critical 21-daily moving average (DMA), now at 1.3648, so far this Wednesday. The price breached the latter on Tuesday but recaptured it towards the closing.
Meanwhile, the Doji candlesticks formed on the daily chart a day before could be hinting towards sellers’ exhaustion, especially after a three-day bearish run.
Therefore, the GBP buyers remain hopeful so long as the price holds above the 21-DMA. The major could likely retest Tuesday’s high at 1.3710.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades flat above the midline, near 52.10, which could offer some support to the bulls.
However, a daily closing below the 21-DMA could trigger a sharp sell-off towards the upward-sloping 50-DMA support at 1.3535. Note that the price hasn’t given a daily closing below the 21-DMA since January 11.

Nasdaq retests all-time high at 13550/600

Nasdaq March higher again through 13400 opening the door to a retest of the alltime high at 13550/600. We are there as I write
Nasdaq retests the all time high at 13550/600. A break higher is a buy signaltargeting 13640/650, 13680/690 & above 13710 we look for 13750/770.
Failure to beat resistance at the all time high at 13600 risks a double top sell signal.This sends prices back to 13450/400, perhaps as far as support at 13200/150.Unlikely at this stage but further losses meet strong support at 1300/12950. Longsneed stops below 12900.

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