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06 August 2020

Dollar down, gold up amid stalled fiscal talks, vaccine hopes, ahead of jobless claims

The US dollar remains on the back foot while gold shines, following experienced on Thursday, partially in response to hints of weak Non-Farm Payrolls. US jobless are eyed on Thursday. Hopes of a coronavirus vaccine boost markets while ongoing fiscal talks in Washington are eyed.

Worrying data: ADP’s private-sector jobs report has shown an increase of only 167,000 jobs in July against 1.5 million expected. While the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index beat estimates with 58.1 points, the employment component’s fall implies weak hiring in America’s services sector.

Weekly jobless claims do not refer to the week when Non-Farm Payrolls were conducted, but are still watched as a snapshot of the labor market. The economic calendar is pointing to a fall in both initial and continuing claims.

The S&P 500 Index has continued inching its way toward the all-time highs, supported by hopes for a vaccine. Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, said it is likely that the US will have tens of millions of doses by the end of the year and a billion by the end of 2021.

Gold extended its gains on Wednesday, hitting a new all-time high at $2,055.65. The precious metal is benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus. Silver has topped $27. In addition to the yellow metal’s drivers, XAG/USD benefits from silver’s usage in environmental technologies.

The Bank of England is set to leave interest rates unchanged shortly in its “Super Thursday” which includes the Monetary Policy Report. New forecasts, hints of negative rates, and potentially new buying are all in the mix for the BOE. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, delivers a press conference.

GBP/USD is holding up above 1.31 as US-UK trade talks continue and Markit’s Construction PMI is awaited after the BOE.

EUR/USD is trading below 1.19 after nearing that round level on Wednesday. Coronavirus cases are rising in Spain, France, and other countries, but remain far below the peaks.

AUD/USD is at around 0.72. Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said that COVID-19 will cost the nation at least A$7 billion.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: 23-month-old support line keeps buyers hopeful

USD/CHF keeps the short-term trading range between 0.9075 and 0.9088, currently around 0.9087, during the major part of Thursday’s Asian session. The quote slumped to the
early-2015 bottom the previous day. However, longer-term falling trend line joins oversold RSI conditions to challenge the bears.

Considering the pair’s failures to slip beneath the recent lows of 0.9050, while repeating the last week’s bounce, buyers should be watchful of any upside clearance of 0.9100. The same could recall 0.9155 back to the chart. However, Monday’s peak near 0.9245, followed by 0.9250 round-figures could challenge the bulls afterward.

EUR/USD: Daily recommendations on major

EUR/USD – 1.1876

Despite the single currency’s selloff from last Friday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1908 to as low as 1.1697 on Monday, subsequent rally to 1.1905 yesterday on usd’s broad-based weakness confirms the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of said top and break would extend marginally, however, 1.1950/60 should remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1800 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.1722, break would risk stronger retracement to 1.1697.

Pay attention to the release of Germany industrial orders mm and yy at 06:00GMT. Street forecasts are 10.1% and -34.0% vs previous readings of 10.4% and -29.3% respectively.

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