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07 August 2020

Dollar ticks up after Trump’s TikTok move, all eyes on Non-Farm Payrolls

The dollar has been rising across the board, including against gold, which is trading close to $2,050 after hitting $2,074.98 – a new all-time high.

The US president also threatened to use an executive order to force an agreement on a fiscal relief package. Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats have made limited progress, one week after federal unemployment benefits expired.

NFP uncertainty: The economic calendar is showing that Non-Farm Payrolls are set to show an increase of around 1.5 million jobs in July, but weak employment components in purchasing managers’ indexes and a downbeat ADP labor market figure have clouded the picture. The resurgence of coronavirus since mid-June has likely limited the drop in the unemployment rate as well.

GBP/USD is trading closer to 1.31 down from the highs closer to 1.32 recorded after the Bank of England painted a somewhat rosier picture of the recovery in the UK and pushed negative rates to the backburner.

EUR/USD is hovering under 1.1850, partly impacted by rising COVID-19 figures in Germany, France, Spain, and other countries.

Canada also publishes its labor figures for July, with another recovery on the cards. The northern nation gained 952,900 positions in June and a more moderate increase is now on the cards.

EUR/USD still looks to 1.1930 – UOB

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that ‘there is room for EUR to make one more push higher towards 1.1930 (minor resistance is at 1.1905) before a sustained pullback can be expected’. While EUR did make another push higher, it only touched 1.1915 before retreating quickly. Upward momentum has eased somewhat but there is still room for EUR to edge higher but any advance is viewed as part of a broad 1.1820/1.1930 range (a sustained advance above 1.1930 is unlikely).”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Tuesday (04 Aug, spot at 1.1760) that EUR ‘is in the early stages of a consolidation phase’ and ‘is expected to trade between 1.1600 and 1.1900’. The rapid manner by which EUR moved towards the top of the range was not exactly expected (overnight high of 1.1905). While upward momentum is beginning to improve, it appears too early to expect a resumption of the recent positive phase in EUR. Only a daily closing above 1.1925 would indicate that EUR is ready to tackle the round-number resistance at 1.2000. At this stage, the probability for such a move is not high but it would continue to increase as long as EUR does not move below the ‘strong support’ at 1.1780.”

GBP/USD: Bears attack 1.3100 amid US dollar pullback ahead of NFP

Technical analysis

Failures to provide a daily closing beyond an eight-month-old resistance line joins overbought RSI and sluggish MACD to direct bears towards 1.3000 round-figures and the weekly low around 1.2980. On the upside, a clear break above the mentioned resistance line, currently around 1.3180 will need validation from the 1.3200 threshold before attacking the yearly top near 1.3265.

AUD/USD probes intraday low beyond 0.7200 after China trade data

Technical analysis

Unless breaking an ascending trend line from May 22, coupled with 21-day EMA, near 0.7110-0.7100, the bears are less likely to take controls. As a result, bulls targeting the year 2019 top near 0.7300 should remain hopeful.

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