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market review 07 January 21

07 January 21

Markets shrug off Capitol storming, USD rocked by blue wave, NFP hints eyed

US politics: The world was shocked to see a mob incited by Trump storming the Capitol and vandalizing it. The president continued making his unfounded claims of fraud and supporters seemed to try to overturn the election results. Police eventually gained control of the event, allowing Congress to continue ratifying President-elect Joe Biden’s win.
Fiscal stimulus coming: Democratic candidates Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossof won their Senate runoff races in Georgia, allowing their party effective control of the upper chamber. That allows President-elect Joe Biden to push additional relief packages and markets are cheering.
The US dollar has been having a mixed reaction. On the one hand, the safe-haven currency was sold off – yet it recovered as bond yields climbed on prospects of higher government debt. Ten-year Treasuries hold their ground above 1%. Gold has also been whipsawed, failing to hold onto gains.
ADP’s private-sector jobs report showed a disappointing loss of 123,000 jobs in December, lowering expectations for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. The data contradicts the upbeat ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for last month.
The ISM Services PMI, due out on Thursday, provides the final hint toward the official labor figures. Weekly jobless claims for the week ending January 1 are also of interest.
EUR/USD is battling the 1,23 level, driven mostly by the dollar. Preliminary eurozone inflation figures for December are set to remain subdued. German Factory Orders surprised with an increase of 2.3% in November.

Crude Oil Futures: Rally poised to extend further

CME Group’s advanced readings for crude oil futures markets noted open interest reversed Tuesday’s pullback and increased by around 11.4K contracts on Wednesday. On the other hand, volume shrunk by nearly 206.5K contracts following two builds in a row.
WTI now looks to $54.00 and above
Prices of the WTI extended its ascent on Wednesday and surpassed the key $50.00 mark per barrel for the first time since February. The move was amidst rising open interest, which is supportive of extra gains in the very near-term. That said, the February’s top at $54.45 emerges as the next hurdle of note.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Three-week-old resistance probes Wednesday’s doji

USD/CAD takes rounds to 1.2675/70 during Thursday’s Asian trading. The pair dropped to the fresh low since April 2018 before bouncing off 1.2630 and closing around 1.2670 the previous day. In doing so, it formed a Doji candlestick near the multi-month low, which in turn suggests a corrective pullback.
Though, USD/CAD buyers need to successfully cross lows marked during December 15 and 17, around 1.2690, to firm up the grip and justify the candlestick formation.
Also likely to challenge the upside momentum is the 1.2700 threshold and short-term SMAs near 1.2755 and 1.2770.
On the contrary, a downside break of the latest low of 1.2630 will eye the 1.2600 round-figure for immediate relief of the USD/CAD sellers before directing them to April 2018 bottom surrounding 1.2530/25.
Overall, USD/CAD is likely to remain pressured but Wednesday’s Doji formation teases short-term corrective pullback in prices.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back

GBP/USD is trying to settle below the nearest support at 1.3575.
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD managed to get below 1.3600 and is currently testing the support at 1.3575. If this test is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next support level near the 20 EMA at 1.3540. This support level has already been tested several times during recent trading sessions and proved its strength.
A move below the 20 EMA will signal that GBP/USD lost upside momentum and is ready for a pullback. In this case, GBP/USD will move towards the next support level at 1.3500.
On the upside, the nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located at 1.3625. If GBP/USD gets above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.3665. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the resistance which is located near the recent highs at 1.3710.

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