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market review 08 December 20

08 December 20

Economic Data and Brexit Keep the EUR and the Pound in the Spotlight

While economic data will draw interest, it’s crunch time in Brexit talks. Expect plenty of sensitivity to updates from Brussels.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out for December.

Germany’s sentiment figures will likely have the greatest impact on the EUR.

French nonfarm payroll figures and finalized 3rd quarter GDP numbers for the Eurozone are also due out. We would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the EUR, however.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit news updates and chatter from Capitol Hill will also continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.2110.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will continue to leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit updates. It will be all eyes on Brussels as the British PM and EU President attempt to break the deadlock.

Earlier in the day, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor showed a 7.7% rise in sales, year-on-year, in November. In October, sales had risen by 5.2%. The impact on the Pound was muted, however, with Brexit in focus.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.14% to $1.3361.

For The USD

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. 3rd quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs are due out.

Expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Greenback and market risk sentiment, however.

The markets have moved on from the 3rd quarter. Progress towards a COVID-19 stimulus package and COVID-19 vaccine updates will remain the key drivers.

From the EU, any breakdown in Brexit talks would support demand for the U.S Dollar, however.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Traders Remain Focused On Brexit News

GBP/USD is mostly flat as traders wait for additional catalysts.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is currently trying to settle above 1.3350. Volatility decreased, and GBP/USD may soon try to get to the test of the nearest resistance level at 1.3400.

If this test is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3440. This resistance was tested yesterday and proved its strength. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.3440, it will gain upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at 1.3485.

On the support side, the nearest support for GBP/USD is located at the 20 EMA at 1.3330. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3300. A move below the support at 1.3300 will push GBP/USD towards the next support at 1.3270.

I’d note that these support levels will likely be in play in case of relatively calm trading. Most likely, they will be ignored in case of a news-driven sell-off.

EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Upside momentum eyes 0.9100

EUR/GBP prints 0.20% intraday gains while trading around 0.9070 ahead of Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the pair keeps its run-up beyond 200-bar SMA, as portrayed by the one-week-old ascending trend channel formation.

The mood also got a back-up from MACD conditions to keep the EUR/GBP buyers hopeful despite the previous day’s pullback from the seven-week top.

Hence, the quote presently eyes the 0.9100 round-figure ahead of looking to revisit the previous day’s high of 0.9142.

However, any more upside past-0.9142 may catch a breather around the upper line of the stated channel, at 0.9153, if not then October’s top near 0.9163 may return to the charts.

Alternatively, a downside break of the channel support, at 0.9015 now, can recall the 0.9000 but the key SMA support, around 0.8985, could disappoint EUR/GBP sellers afterward.

EUR/GBP four-hour chart

Crude Oil Price Update – $45.30 Potential Trigger Point for Acceleration to Downside

The direction of the January WTI crude oil market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $45.30.

“For the moment, the market is happy to look past these issues as the vaccine rollout begins; however the economic headwinds are building in the short-term,” ANZ Research said in a note.

Later today at 21:30 GMT, traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). It is expected to show that U.S. crude stocks fell the week-ending December 4.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the January WTI crude oil market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $45.30.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $45.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of $46.43. Overtaking this level could generate the upside momentum needed to take out the last main top at $46.68.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $45.30 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with $43.92 the next downside target. This is followed closely by the short-term 50% level at $43.51.

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