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market review 09 December 20

09 December 20

Markets encouraged by stimulus prospects, Brexit Summit, BOC eyed

US fiscal stimulus: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, seems ready to agree on a stimulus bill worth around $900 billion. While the GOP is still at odds with Democrats over the details, investors hope a deal could be struck during the lame-duck session.
Germany continued reporting high COVID-19 figures and is planning new restrictions. EUR/USD is stabilizing above 1.21. Tensions are rising ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank decision Thursday.

Brexit: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson travels to Brussels for dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a bid to break the deadlock in talks. On Wednesday, both sides ironed out arrangements in Northern Ireland, the last piece of the 2019 Withdrawal Agreement. While the minor deal prompted hope for a breakthrough, Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier said the chances of a trade deal are “very slim.” Nevertheless. GBP/USD has recovered toward 1.34.
Coronavirus vaccine 1: The UK administered the first shots of the Pfizer/BioNTech inoculation on Tuesday. More importantly for markets, the US Food and Drugs Administration released a promising assessment of the jab ahead of a probable approval on Thursday. The FDA seal will likely trigger further green lights in other countries.
The Bank of Canada is set to leave the interest rate unchanged in its last decision of the year and is set to comment on the economy after Canadian employment figures beat estimates but growth missed.

Gold has been consolidating its gains around $1,860, underpinned by stimulus hopes. WTI Crude Oil has been unable to hold onto its OPEC+ related advances and changes hands at around $45.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 104.132, Strengthens Over 104.427

The direction of the USD/JPY over the near-term is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 104.132.
Short-Term Outlook
The direction of the USD/JPY over the near-term is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 104.132.

Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 104.132 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a spike into the short-term 50% level at 104.427. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next targets a pair of main tops at 104.751 and 104.761.
Taking out 104.761 will change the main trend to up. This could extend the rally into the main 50% level at 105.133.

Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 104.132 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into a low at 103.673, followed by a main bottom at 103.653.
Taking out 103.653 will reaffirm the downtrend with 103.177 the next likely downside target.

Gold Futures: Scope for further gains

Traders increased their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Tuesday, this time by around 2.5K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. On the other hand, volume resumed the downtrend and shrunk by around 64.5K contracts.
Gold looks to $1,900/oz
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, faltering just ahead of the $1,880 level. The uptick was amidst rising open interest, which is supportive of the continuation of the weekly recovery in the very near-term. That said, the next target of note remains at the $1,900 per ounce.

GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls look for entries above 139.40

GBP/JPY trims intraday gains while declining to 139.25 during the early Wednesday’s trading. In doing so, the pair marks another failure to cross the key resistance convergence including 200-HMA and the resistance line of a short-term ascending triangle.
During the quote’s downside past-138.60, the monthly low near 137.90 and November 19 bottom around 137.20 will be in the spotlight.
On the upside, a clear break of 139.40 will target the 140.00 threshold whereas the monthly high near 140.70 can return to the charts afterward.
In a case where the GBP/JPY bulls keep the reins above 140.70, the 142.00 round-figure will be on their radars.

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