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Market review 09 November 2020

09 November 2020

A Light Economic Calendar Leaves Capitol Hill, COVID-19, and Brexit in Focus

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with Germany’s trade data for September in focus.

As the Eurozone falls to a 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the stats are unlikely to have a material impact.

The markets will be looking towards October and November data to ascertain the damage to the 4th quarter.

Away from the economic calendar, expect any further updates on COVID-19 to remain a factor. Brexit and U.S Politics will also influence. Biden’s victory is considered EUR positive.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde could move the dial and soften the EUR. The ECB President had talked of further easing next month. Any hints should pin back the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.11% to $1.1887.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction on the day.

While there are no material stats to consider, BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak later this morning. There may be few surprises, however, following last week’s policy decision.

Away from the economic calendar, updates on Brexit and COVID-19 will remain key drivers. It’s last chance saloon for a Brexit deal this week. Chatter from the weekend suggests that a deal is imminent. With Biden looking to take the Presidency, some compromise from the UK may be likely in a bid to seal a trade agreement with the U.S in return.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.21% to $1.3184.

For The USD

It’s a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. There are no material stats to provide direction. The focus will remain on Capitol Hill.

Vote recounts and court rulings will need monitoring, following Biden’s victory.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 92.195.


EUR/USD: Upside remains capped by 1.1900 amid upbeat market mood

The buying interest around EUR/USD remains unabated heading into the European open, as the advance extends into a fifth straight session on Monday.

At the time of writing, the spot adds 0.12% at 1.1885, having failed several attempts to take out the 1.1900 level.

The Eurostoxx 50 futures and Germany’s DAX futures rally nearly 2%, suggesting a positive open on the European indices, which could further bolster the market mood and exert additional downside pressure on the safe-haven US dollar.

EUR/USD technical levels

The bulls need a decisive break above the July high of 1.1910 to extend the upside towards the psychological 1.1950 level. To the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1840 (5-DMA), below which Friday’s low of 1.1795 could be tested.

Gold: $1973 is the level to beat for the bulls

“American media networks called a Biden victory in the presidential election over the weekend, which sent the risk assets spiraling through the roof despite a split Congress already priced-in by the market.”

“The path of least resistance for the bright metal appears to the upside. However, the rising wedge hurdle on the hourly chart at $1965 remains a tough nut to crack for the XAU bulls. A sustained move above the latter could open doors towards September 18 highs of $1973.64. Acceptance above which could bring the $2000 level back in sight.”

“To the downside, the bulls need to defend the 21-HMA at $1954, below which the rising trendline support at $1947 could be tested. Further down, the upward-sloping 50-HMA at $1941 also remains on sellers’ radars.”

USD/CAD bears battles 1.3000 threshold amid US dollar declines, WTI strength

USD/CAD takes offers around the intraday low of 1.3007, down 0.27% on a day, while heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the quote benefits from the broad US dollar weakness and upbeat performance of Canada’s main export, WTI crude oil.

Be it S&P 500 Futures or the Asian stocks, needless to mention the US 10-year Treasury yields, risk barometers cheer Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential elections. The market optimism ignores Donald Trump’s challenges to multiple results as well as fears that the Republicans can still keep the power in the Senate. Also joining the line of the risk-negative news is the recent resurgence of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the US and Europe.

Technical analysis

An ascending trend line from December 31, 2019 and September month’s low, respectively around 1.3000 and 1.2995, restrict the pair’s short-term downside. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the 1.3100 immediate resistance can escalate the corrective recovery towards the mid-October top near 1.3260.

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