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market review 10 February 21

10 February 21

Dollar extends decline, Bitcoin holds high ahead of US inflation, Powell’s speech

US ten-year Treasury yields have stabilized around 1.15%, after rising beforehand. This current calm in the bond market has made way for the risk-on mood to take over. While the S&P 500 did not reach new highs on Tuesday, equity markets in Asia and Europe are on the rise.
The US Senate is consumed by former President Donald Trump’s trial for inciting insurrection on the Capitol and progress toward passing a large fiscal stimulus seem to have stalled. Nevertheless, any development on that front will be closely watched by investors. Democrats are pushing for a large relief plan, but probably below President Joe Biden’s original $1.9 trillion proposal.
EUR/USD has topped 1.21 despite Europe’s slow vaccination rollout. GBP/USD has surpassed 1.38, hitting the highest since 2018. Commodity currencies are also on the rise, with USD/CAD falling below 1.27, buoyed also by oil prices gushing higher. WTI Cure is changing hands close to $59.
UK vaccine news: One dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine causes two-thirds protection while the second dose raises it to 80%. The UK has opted to space administering of these doses.
US inflation figures for February are of interest amid growing concerns that stimulus would trigger a rise in prices. Both the headline Consumer Price Index and Core CPI are set to rise by 0.2% monthly.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is slated to speak about the economy later in the day and may hint about the bank’s next moves. A focus on slack in the labor market will likely reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance, weighing on the dollar and supporting markets.

Forex technical analysis and forecast

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
EURUSD continues moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1.2133 and then consolidate there. Later, the market may break the range to the downside and form a new descending structure with the target at 1.2050.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is extending the ascending wave towards 1.3820 and may later consolidate there. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.3696.

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed the descending wave at 104.50; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may grow to test 105.00 from below and then start a new decline towards 104.40. Later, the market may resume growing with the target at 105.90.

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still moving downwards. Today, the pair may reach 0.8906 and then consolidate there. After that, the instrument may break the range to the upside and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.8975.

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