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10 September 2020

Brexit in deep crisis, vaccine hopes resurface, all eyes on the ECB

The European Central Bank is set to leave its policy unchanged but take stock of the current economic situation. Reports suggest that the ECB’s new forecast will convey more confidence in the recovery, despite rising COVID-19 cases in the old continent. EUR/USD advanced and settled above 1.18 ahead of the decision. Comments about the exchange rate of the euro – following concerns previously expressed – are also eyed.

Brexit crisis: The EU may press charges against the UK following London’s publication of a draft bill that violates the Withdrawal Agreement – even before it turns into law. The pound dropped on the publication of the legal text but bounced when Brussels announced it would not abandon talks. GBP/USD recovered from under 1.29 to above 1.30 before consolidating its gains.

President Donald Trump admitted he downplayed the significance of coronavirus, according to his admission before legendary journalist Bob Woodward. He said it will go away despite being warned of its dangers. Rival Joe Biden seized on the news and said Trump misled the public. The challenger is widening his lead against the incumbent.

US initial jobless claims are set to extend their decline after hitting 881,000 last week. The world’s largest recovery is extending its gradual recovery.

Oil prices have been recovering from the lows amid the risk-on mood. WTI topped $38 before edging lower. OPEC+ compliance has increased from 96% to 103% according to a report by Energy Intelligence.

The Canadian dollar benefited from the bump up in petrol prices and by a relatively confident message from the Bank of Canada. The BOC left its policy – including asset purchases – unchanged.

Gold Futures: Scope for extra gains

Traders increased their open interest positions for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by around 8.1K contracts according to advanced figures from CME Group. Volume, instead, reversed two consecutive builds and shrunk by nearly 199K contracts.

Gold still targets $2,000/oz

Prices of the ounce troy of gold keep the side-line theme unchanged above the $1,900 mark so far. Wednesday’s positive performance of the yellow metal was accompanied by rising open interest, which is indicative that extra gains are likely in the short-term horizon.

Dax intraday: Key resistance at 13145.00

Our preference

Short positions below 13145.00 with targets at 12840.00 & 12754.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Above 13145.00 look for further upside with 13240.00 & 13330.00 as targets.

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