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Market review 11 November 20

11 November 20

Markets torn between covid resurgence and vaccine hopes, kiwi jumps, Lagarde eyed

Markets are edging higher and the dollar is on the back foot as the surge of COVID-19 cases counters the dramatic vaccine announcement on Monday. NZD/USD stands out and ECB President Christine Lagarde is awaited as several countries are off for a bank holiday.

US elections: President-elect Joe Biden continues working on transition plans while President Donald Trump refuses to concede, repeating unsubstantiated claims of fraud. Election officials in all states said there are no irregularities that affected the outcome. The final counting continues in various states and is unlikely to change the results.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its interest rate unchanged and surprised with a relatively upbeat assessment. Most importantly, the Wellington-based institution hinted that negative borrowing costs are off the table, sending NZD/USD 1% higher.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank will speak later on. She may provide comments on the economy.

EUR/USD has stabilized around 1.18 while GBP/USD is holding onto gains close to 1.33. The yen remains the loser of the current bout of volatility, with USD/JPY changing hands around 105.50. Gold is attempting to recover but has yet to recapture the $1,900 level.

Brexit talks continue in London, with fisheries, state aid, and Britain’s Internal Markets Bill remaining the thorniest issues. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke with Biden and the Good Friday agreement Ireland was mentioned. The new administration wants the arrangements to maintain the peace in the Emerald Isle.


NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum Targets .6939

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the direction of the NZD/USD will be determined by trader reaction to Tuesday’s close at .6831.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6831 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the March 21 main top at .6939. We could see profit-taking on the first test of this level, but keep in mind, it’s also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6831 will signal the presence of sellers. This will put the NZD/USD in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 11675.50, Weakens Under 11502.50

The near-term direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 11675.50 and 11502.50.

Short-Term Outlook

The near-term direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 11675.50 and the short-term Fibonacci level at 11502.50. The market is currently trading inside this zone.

Counter-trend traders are trying to increase the selling pressure, while buyers are looking for value with some trying to defend the uptrend.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room under 11502.50. This makes this level a trigger point for a potential acceleration to the downside.

Overtaking 11675.50 could trigger a rally into 11956.00. This is the last potential resistance level before the all-time high at 12408.75.

Gold: Downside is more compelling while below $1900

Gold’s (XAU/USD) rebound from six-week lows of $1850 faltered near the $1891 barrier on Tuesday, although the spot managed to hold on to the recovery gains. The bright metal settled the day around $1878 levels as bulls are losing conviction while below $1900, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports.

“Amid a partial US market holiday this Wednesday, gold wavers in familiar ranges below the $1891 critical resistance, underpinned by renewed hopes of additional fiscal and monetary policy stimulus to spur the global economic growth.”

“Surging coronavirus cases in the US and Europe could threaten the economic recovery worldwide, rekindling additional stimulus expectations. However, should the virus concerns aggravate and translate into broad risk-aversion, the US dollar could pick up bids as a safe-haven, rendering gold-negative.”

“The bearish 50-HMA resistance at $1889 will offer immediate resistance, above which the bulls need to take out the horizontal 200-HMA hurdle at $1903 to reviving the recovery momentum.”

“Acceptance below powerful support of $1878 could expose the previous month low of $1860. The next downside target awaits at $1850-49, the November 9 low and September 28 low.”

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