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12 November 20
Dollar rises as current virus spread outweighs vaccine hopes, central bankers eyed
US coronavirus cases have hit a record high above 144,000 and hospitalizations topped 65,000 for the first time. Deaths are also on the rise as the winter wave is worsening. Germany’s caseload has stabilized but mortalities are on the rise while Italy is under pressure to slap a nationwide lockdown.
Vaccine: Moderna may join Pfizer in announcing interim results from its coronavirus vaccine Phase 3 trial, perhaps as early as next week. Top US epidemiologist Anthony Fauci said he would be surprised if Moderna fails to report success as both firms use the same mRNA technology. Early in the week, Pfizer announced a 90% efficacy. AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson also follow the same approach.
US elections: President-elect Joe Biden continues working on his transition, announcing his appointee for Chief of Staff. President Donald Trump refuses to concede tweeted “we will win.” Georgia will begin a manual recount, yet experts do not expect Biden’s lead to change there. The Democrat is also ahead in several other states as counting continues.
Brexit: EU and UK negotiators are set to miss the self-imposed November 15 deadline and hope to reach an accord next week. Fisheries, state aid, and trade around Ireland remain thorny issues.
UK: Gross Domestic Product grew by 15.5% in the third quarter, marginally below estimates. Britain is under lockdown, and while the case curve is flattening, mortalities have hit the grim 50,000 milestone.
US Consumer Price Index figures for October are set to show relatively subdued inflation, in line with the trend in previous months. Weekly jobless claims carry expectations for another drop.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will host Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powel and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in a panel at an ECB forum. Comments about additional stimulus may rock markets.
Economic Data Puts the Pound in the Spotlight, with Brexit Chatter also in Focus
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. 3rd quarter GDP, industrial and manufacturing production, and trade data are due out later this morning.
Expect the numbers to influence, though, with the reintroduction of lockdown measures this month, any major upside in the Pound may be muted.
Late in the day, BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak. There could be the talk of negative rates should the economic data disappoint.
Away from the economic calendar, however, Brexit and COVID-19 updates will likely remain the key drivers on the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.01% to $1.3223.
GBP/USD Daily Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back On Brexit Uncertainty
GBP/USD is moving towards the nearest support level at 1.3180.
GBP/USD has managed to get below the support at 1.3210 and is moving towards the next support level at 1.3180. If GBP/USD settles below this level, it will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 1.3140.
A move below 1.3140 will open the way to the test of the support level near the 20 EMA at 1.3100.
On the upside, the previous support at 1.3210 may serve as the first resistance level for GBP/USD. If GBP/USD moves above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3270.
In case GBP/USD manages to get above 1.3270, it will try to get to the test of the next resistance at 1.3325. The recent attempt to test this level was stopped just under 1.3315, but the next attempt may have better chances for success.
https://www.investing.com/charts/forex-charts
USD/JPY still targets the 106.00 region – UOB
24-hour view: “We expected USD to “trade sideways between 104.80 and 105.55” yesterday. While USD traded sideways as expected, the registered range was narrower than anticipated (104.99/105.67). The underlying has firmed somewhat and this could lead to USD testing the 105.75 resistance first before a pullback can be expected. For today, the major resistance at 106.10 is likely out of reach. Support is at 105.20 followed by 105.00.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from Tuesday (10 Nov, spot at 105.15). As highlighted, there is “room for the current strong advance in USD to test the major resistance at 106.10”. At this stage, the odds for a sustained rise above this level are not high. On the downside, a break of 104.40 (‘strong support’ level previously at 104.00) would indicate that USD is not ready for 106.10.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-still-targets-the-10600-region-uob-202011120752
https://www.investing.com/charts/forex-charts
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 11955.75, Weakens Under 11675.50
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 11955.75 and the 50% level at 11675.50. Holding between this levels will signal investor indecision and impending volatility.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 11675.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into 11502.50. If this level fails then look for an acceleration to the downside with 10942.25 – 10917.50 the next likely target.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 11955.75 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 12408.75 – 12444.75 the next likely target zone.
https://www.investing.com/indices/nq-100-futures-streaming-chart
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