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12 October 2020

A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves Brexit, COVID-19, and U.S Politics in Focus

The Day Ahead for the EUR:

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of geopolitics and market risk sentiment. U.S Presidential Election campaign chatter and Brexit will be the key drivers on the day.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Expect any chatter on policy or the economic outlook to also provide direction.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.06% to $1.1819.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound firmly in the hands of Brexit as the final round of talks kicks off this week.

News from the weekend was certainly not upbeat, as news hit the wires of Johnson and Macron having a fiery call. The French President continues to take a hardline, while other EU member states are eager to compromise.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.3031.

Across the Pond

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. There are no material stats to provide the Dollar with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the focus on COVID-19 stimulus updates and U.S Presidential Election news.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 93.098 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.3129 against the U.S Dollar.

GBP/USD: Steady near monthly high above 1.3000, focus on BOE’s Bailey, UK PM Johnson

Technical analysis

The bulls may wait for a clear break of an ascending trend line from September 16, at 1.3055 now, before confirming the further upside towards the early August top around 1.3185. On the contrary, 50-day SMA, near 1.3025, holds the key for GBP/USD sellers’ entry, targeting the 1.3000 threshold.

Crude Oil Futures: Extra decline looks shallow

CME Group’s preliminary readings for crude oil futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, this time by more than 9K contracts. Volume reversed four straight builds and diminished by around 362.8K contracts.

WTI meets resistance near $41.50

Prices of the WTI run out of steam in the vicinity of the key hurdle near $41.50, sparking the ongoing move lower. The knee-jerk, however, was against the backdrop of shrinking open interest and volume, leaving further retracements short-lived. In this regard, the 100-day SMA at $39.87 and the 200-day SMA at $38.50 should offer initial contention.

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