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24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘downward momentum is beginning to improve and, GBP could drift lower to 1.3005’. GBP subsequently dipped to a low of 1.3006 before rebounding quickly. While the recovery lacks momentum, there is room for GBP to edge higher even though the strong resistance at 1.3110 is likely out of reach (minor resistance is at 1.3085). On the downside, the low near 1.3005 is expected to be strong enough to hold for today (minor support is at 1.3025).”
Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (11 Aug, spot at 1.3075). As highlighted, last week’s high of 1.3185 is likely a short-term top. The current movement is viewed as part of consolidation phase. For the next couple of weeks, GBP is likely to drift lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.2950/1.3160 range. Looking forward, only a clear break below 1.2950 would indicate that GBP is ready for a deeper pull-back.”
According to FXstreet The GBPUSD is short position below 1.3115 with target at 1.2950.
The narrative that EUR/USD should rally runs counter to any growth data, Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at Institute of International Finance (IIF) tweeted on Wednesday.
The US economy contracted by 9.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, while the German economy contracted by 11.5%. Meanwhile, France and Spain registered growth rates of -19% and -22.1%, respectively.
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1810, representing a 0.22% gain on the day. The pair rallied from 1.0775 to 1.1916 in 2.5-months to Aug. 6.
Gold is currently trading around $1,938 per ounce, representing a 1.2% gain on the day. Prices have recovered 4% from the low of $1,863 reached on Wednesday.
Even so, it is too early to call a bullish revival. That’s because the yellow metal is yet to rise above $1,950 – the high of Wednesday’s spinning bottom candle.
A spinning bottom candle occurs when an asset sees two-way business but ends the day with marginal to moderate gains or losses. It is widely considered a sign of indecision in the market place.
In gold’s case, however, it could be taken as a sign of seller exhaustion, given it has appeared following a notable pullback from $2,075 to $1,863 and marks a bear failure to penetrate the ascending trendline connecting March 20 and June 5 lows.
As such, a close above Wednesday’s high of $1,950 is needed to confirm a bullish revival. That will likely invite stronger chart-driven buying, yielding a break above $2,000.
On the downside, support is located at $1,913 (Asian session low) and $1,900 (psychological support).
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