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Market review 12 November 20

13 November 20

Consumer Sentiment, COVID-19, and Capital Hill Puts the Dollar in Focus

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Trade data and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter are due out for the Eurozone. Finalized October inflation figures for Spain and France are also due out

Barring deviation from prelim figures, however, the stats and September trade data are unlikely to have a material impact.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and updates on Brexit and COVID-19 will continue influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1807.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and COVID-19 news updates.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.3117.

For The USD

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Prelim consumer sentiment and expectation figures for November are due out late in the day. Ahead of the numbers, October wholesale inflation figures are also due out.

Expect the consumer sentiment figure to have the greatest influence on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 92.929.


E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Weak Under 29164; Near-Term Target 27977

Short-term Outlook

The early price action on Thursday indicates that 29164 is controlling the direction of the Dow. It also suggests that investors aren’t comfortable with chasing the market higher and may prefer to buy after a test of a value area.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 29164 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into Monday’s low at 28328, followed by a 50% level at 27977.

Bullish Scenario

Overcoming and sustaining a rally over 29164 will signal the return of buyers. This could eventually lead to a test of the all-time high at 30000.

USD/CAD off six-day highs, bid above 1.3150 amid WTI sell-off

USD/CAD trades near the point of the 1.3100 level in early European trading, easing off the six-day highs reached at 1.3170 during late-Asia.

Despite the retracement, the spot remains well-bid while on track to book a 0.80% weekly gain this Friday.

The sentiment around the major remains underpinned by over 1.50% sell-off in the US oil, which weighs negatively on the resource-linked loonie. WTI drops below $40.50, “extending a two-day losing trend as concerns over rising coronavirus infection overshadowed reports of major producers mulling a delay in production ramp-up,” FXStreet’s Analyst Omkar Godbole noted.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains sidelined, although clings onto the weekly gain against it main peers, collaborating with the upbeat tone seen in the spot. The greenback continues to draw haven bids amid mounting virus-induced economic risks and US fiscal stimulus impasse.

Amid a cautious market mood, the focus shifts towards the US PPI and Consumer Sentiment data, as the Canadian docket remains data-dry. Also, of note remains the covid statistics from both sides of the Atlantic for a fresh take on the risk sentiment and dollar trades.

USD/CAD technical levels

Bulls are “eyeing the 200-SMA level of 1.3186 as the next resistance before probing the 1.3200 threshold. On the contrary, USD/CAD sellers will wait for a clear downside break below the previous resistance line, presently around 1.3075, for fresh entries,” Anil Panchal, FXStreet’s Analyst explained.

Crude Oil Futures: Scope for further retracements

CME Group’s flash prints for crude oil futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday, now by around 26.8K contracts. On the other hand, volume went down for the third session in a row, this time by around 212.5K contracts.

WTI now looks to the 55-day SMA near $39.50/bbl

Prices of the WTI kept correcting lower on Thursday following monthly peaks just above the $43.00 mark per barrel on Wednesday. Rising open interest coupled with the negative price action supports further losses at least in the very near-term with the potential target in the $39.50 zone per barrel, where sits the 55-day SMA.

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