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market review 15 March 21

15 March 21

Economic Data from China Sets the Tone, with the Loonie and Greenback in Focus Later

Economic data from China impresses this morning. A quiet day ahead leaves manufacturing numbers from the U.S and the Greenback in focus.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR
It’s a particularly quiet start to the week on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the EUR with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% to $1.1959.

For the Pound
It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
With no stats to consider, the Pound will also be in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.
Government bond yields and COVID-19 vaccine news will be areas of interest
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.3937.

For the USD
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index figures are due out later today.
With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect the numbers to influence.
Away from the economic calendar, FOMC member chatter and news from Capitol Hill will also need monitoring.

For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. Housing starts and manufacturing sales figures are due out later today.
While we would expect the manufacturing sales figures to have a greater impact, China’s stats from early in the day will set the tone.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.2464 against the U.S Dollar.

GBP/USD to hold the 1.3850 uptrend – Commerzbank

The GBP/USD pair sunk to take another look at the 1.3850 uptrend after weak data on Friday. If the cable holds the uptrend, a retest of the last week high at 1.4018 seems likely, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, briefs.
Key quotes
“GBP/USD sold off on Friday after data showed the UK economy shrank in January, with exports to the European Union dropping 41% from the previous month.”
“Attention is back on its two-month uptrend at 1.3850 and the 55-day ma at 1.3772. Provided that this holds, we would allow for a retest of 1.4018 (last week’s high), and this guards 1.4238/44 (the recent high).”

USD/CAD to target 1.2400 on a break below 1.2470

The USD/CAD came to rest at the 1.2470 support on Friday, a level not visited since February 2018. The bias is lower because technical support is weak and downward momentum strong. Nonetheless, the loonie is vulnerable to a profit-taking rebound, particularly one based on a fundamental factor, interest rates or data, FXStreeet’s Analyst Joseph Trevisani reports.
Key quotes
“The supposed advantage to the Canadian economy from commodity prices has yet to be established in the data and cannot be until second quarter information is issued. In the interim, the trend remains, slowing but intact.”
“First support at 1.2400 is the initial goal but the steep 1.5% drop this week makes the USD/CAD vulnerable to the profit-taking rebounds that have characterized its entire pandemic decline.”
“The first resistance at 1.2515 is weak, 1.2600 is strong.”
“The US Federal Reserve meeting on March 16 and 17 is the main event in the coming week. The slightest hint from Chairman Jerome Powell of tempering in the bond purchase program will send US rates and probably the USD/CAD higher.”
“There will be no policy developments but the first Projection Materials for the year are due. Any improvement in the GDP and unemployment estimates, which is likely, will confirm the positive US economic outlook. Likewise, US Retail Sales on Tuesday and Canadian on Friday will be important notices for their consumer sectors.”

EUR/USD to head towards the 1.1700 level

The EUR/USD pair ended last week little changed, although it posted a lower low for the third consecutive week. EUR/USD briefly pierced the 61.8% retracement of its November/January rally at 1.1885, settling a handful of pips above it. The pair is at risk of falling further, according to FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik.
“The macroeconomic calendar will include a US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting next week. The US central bank is widely anticipated to maintain rates and stimulus programs unchanged, mainly considering the better pandemic-related situation of the US.”
“The US will publish February Retail Sales seen at 0% MoM after printing at 5.9% in January. Germany will release the March ZEW Survey, with the Economic Sentiment expected to have contracted.”
“Resistance comes at 1.1970, the 50% retracement of the mentioned rally, followed by the 1.2070/80 area, the next relevant Fibonacci level and static resistance.”
“Supports are the mentioned 1.1885 and 1.1820, with a break below the latter favoring an extension toward 1.1700.”

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