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Market review 16 November 20

16 November 20

Economic Data from China Sets the Tone, with COVID-19 and Brexit in Focus

The Dollar falls back early in the day, with economic data from China continuing to support riskier assets. Brexit and COVID-19 remain in focus, however.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized October inflation figures for Italy are due out later today.

With Brexit and the effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures in focus, the numbers are unlikely to move the dial.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde could provide direction, however. Following assurances last week of further support next month, any details would garner plenty of interest.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.13% to $1.1849.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and COVID-19 news updates.

On the Brexit front, there has been some chatter on extending trade talks…

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.25% to $1.3222.

For The USD

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index figures are due out later today.

With the market focus on COVID-19, containment measures, and the likely impact on consumption, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on market risk sentiment.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill, and COVID-19 news updates will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.16% to 92.608.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Crossed to Bullish Side of Minor Pivot at 11955.75

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 11955.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 11955.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 11955.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this can generate enough upside momentum then the daily chart indicates the index has a clean shot at 12408.75 and the main top at 12444.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 11955.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next potential target zone coming in at 11675.50 to 11502.50.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.3210

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is currently trying to settle above the nearest resistance level at 1.3210. If GBP/USD manages to gain additional upside momentum, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3270.

A move above the resistance at 1.3270 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level near the recent highs at 1.3325. In case GBP/USD settles above 1.3325, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.3400. I’d note that there are big gaps between levels in this area so GBP/USD may move fast in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, the nearest support level is located at 1.3180. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3140. A move below the support at 1.3140 will push GBP/USD towards the next support at the 20 EMA at 1.3115.

AUD/USD: 0.7300 remains a tough nut to crack ahead of RBA’s Lowe

AUD/USD consolidates its two-day advance below 0.7300, having failed a couple of attempts to recapture the latter earlier in the Asian session.

Further, the optimism also came in from the ASEAN Summit, in which 15 Asia-pac economies signed the China-backed trade pact. The agreement moves towards multilateralism, which could help mitigate the crippling economic cost of the pandemic.

The aussie also benefited from a rise in Chinese industrial production by 6.9% in October, pointing towards a sustained recovery in Australia’s closest trading partner.

Going forward, it remains to be seen if the spot recaptures the 0.7300 level, as mounting Australian-Sino trade tensions continue to weigh on the investors’ minds. Also, the US dollar could regain its footing should the covid stats spook markets once again.

Meanwhile, the immediate focus now remains on the RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s speech due today at 0840 GMT.

AUD/USD technical levels

“The first support level is 0.7200, followed by the 0.7120 price zone. A break below this last would expose the critical 0.7000 threshold. On the other hand, 0.7340 provides resistance, en route to the yearly high at 0.7411,” Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst explained.

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