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17 December 20
Brexit, stimulus optimism depresses dollar after the Fed, BOE eyed as Bitcoin tops $22K
The Federal Reserve left its policy unchanged, disappointing some that expected an imminent adjustment to bond-buying. On the other hand, the Fed committed to maintaining Quantitative Easing until substantial improvement is achieved.
The dollar strengthened at first before declining. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powe
ll urged lawmakers to act, and his lack of immediate action is seen as raising the chances of an accord.
US stimulus: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell continued urging his fellow Republicans to seal a deal, also citing the electoral chances of two GOP senators in the special Georgia runoffs. Other leaders in Congress such as Minority leader Chuck Schumer expressed hope of approving an accord worth some $900 billion.
President-elect Joe Biden also supports an accord and dressed it as only a “down payment” ahead of additional relief in 2021. Gold has advanced toward $1,870.
Brexit talks have made substantial progress on the Level-Playing Field and governance, reportedly leaving only fisheries as a contention point. Despite the minuscule size, the industry has an outsized political impact.
The British parliament is set to go for a Christmas break but could be reconvened if needed. Negotiators remain quiet and refrain from significant leaks, a positive sign. GBP/USD has been extending its gains toward 1.36.
The Bank of England is set to leave its policy unchanged in its last decision of the year and after adding £150 billion to its bond purchase scheme in November. The BOE will probably commit to doing what is necessary.
The “Old Lady” releases its meeting minutes but Governor Andrew Bailey does not hold a press conference. His colleague Ben Broadbent is slated to speak later in the day.
Bitcoin finally surged above $20,000 on Wednesday and has been extending its gains, topping $22,000 at the time of writing. Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments has said it could reach $400,000. Other cryptocurrencies are also advancing.
AUD/USD is nearing 0.76 amid the upbeat market mood and Australia’s surprising drop in its unemployment rate to 6.8%. The land down under gained 90,000 in November, more than double the expectations.
NZD/USD is trading above 0.7135, also riding on upbeat data Gross Domestic Product rebounded by 14% in the third quarter, better than estimated.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to leave its Libor Rate unchanged at -0.75% in its quarterly meeting. The US Treasury labeled Switzerland a currency manipulator, a move that has yet to alter the franc’s value.
US Unemployment Claims are projected to decline from the highs of 853,000 recorded last week, a significant setback. Building Permits and Housing Starts are also eyed.
WTI prints a four-day winning streak as buyers attack the March 2018 high. The energy benchmark recently refreshed the multi-day peak to $48.58, currently up 1.1% near $48.55, during early Thursday.
Even so, multiple resistances to the north, coupled with the overbought RSI conditions on the daily (D1) chart, suggest the black gold’s pullback.
As a result, 10-day SMA, at $46.87, is closely watched as nearby support before directing the oil sellers towards the $45.00 and the monthly bottom near $44.20. However, November’s top near $43.30 and multiple upticks marked in September and October around $42.00 can restrict the quote’s further downside.
In a case where the WTI bears keep reins below $42.00, $40.00 psychological magnet and the support line of a nine-month-old bearish formation, rising wedge, around $39.80, will be the key to watch.
Alternatively, March high precede February lows, respectively around $48.75 and $49.45, to challenge the WTI buyers ahead of the $50.00 round-figure. Also acting as a strong resistance is the upper line of the wedge, at $50.35 now.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
EUR/USD Analysis: Bulls remain in control, fresh two-and-half-year tops and counting
Short-term technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakthrough the 1.2175-80 horizontal resistance was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart are already flashing overbought conditions and warrant some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before the next leg up. Nevertheless, the pair still seems poised to prolong its bullish trajectory and aim to reclaim the 1.2300 round-figure mark. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for additional gains, though the momentum could pause near the 1.2340-50 region.
On the flip side, the 1.2200 round-figure mark now seems to protect the immediate downside and is closely followed by the 1.2180-75 resistance breakpoint. Failure to defend the mentioned support levels might prompt some technical selling. However, any subsequent fall might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 1.2130 region, which marks 200-hour SMA and should now act as a strong near-term base for the major.
https://www.investing.com/charts/forex-charts
BTC/USD
The BTC/USD pair rose to an all-time high of 21,956 as optimism about the future of the digital currency rose. On the daily chart, the price has moved above all moving averages. Similarly, the momentum indicator, RSI, and accumulation/distribution have all continued to rise. After comfortably breaking out past 20,000, the next main target to watch will be the psychological level of 25,000
https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/btc-usd-chart
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