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Market review 16 November 20

17 November 20

Economic Data and Brexit Put the Dollar and the Pound in the Spotlight

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the EUR with direction.

A lack of stats will leave updates on Brexit talks and COVID-19 to influence on the day.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak late in the day. Any details of what to expect next month would provide the EUR with direction.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.1861.

For the Pound

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will also leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and COVID-19 news updates.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey is due to speak later today. Any guidance on monetary policy will influence.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.11% to $1.3214.

For The USD

It’s a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. October retail sales and industrial production, and September business inventory numbers are due out.

Expect October’s retail sales figures to be the key driver on the day, with consumption key to the economic recovery. Dire labor market conditions and concerns over the economic outlook are likely to pin back spending near term.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill, and COVID-19 news updates will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.17% to 92.486.


GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Another Attempt To Settle Above Resistance At 1.3210

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is currently testing the nearest resistance level at 1.3210. Yesterday, GBP/USD made an attempt to settle above this level but faced resistance near 1.3240 and pulled back.

If GBP/USD settles above 1.3210, it will have a chance to get to another test of the resistance which has emerged at 1.3240. A move above this resistance level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.3270.

In case GBP/USD gets above the resistance at 1.3270, it will likely gain additional upside momentum and move towards the resistance at 1.3325. GBP/USD has recently made an attempt to get above this level but faced strong resistance. However, it may have better chances to move above 1.3325 if it gets to another test of this level.

On the support side, the nearest support for GBP/USD is located at 1.3180. This support level has been tested several times during recent trading sessions and proved its strength. A move below 1.3180 will push GBP/USD towards the next support at 1.3140.

If GBP/USD gets below 1.3140, it will get to the test of the support at the 20 EMA at 1.3125. In case GBP/USD declines below the 20 EMA, it will head towards the support at 1.3100.

EUR/USD keeps targeting the 1.1920 level – UOB

24-hour view: “EUR popped to a high of 1.1868, dropped to 1.1812 before recovering to end the day at 1.1853 (+0.18%). Upward momentum is beginning to improve and the bias for today is tilted to the upside. A move above 1.1880 would not be surprising but the major resistance at 1.1920 is unlikely to come under threat. All in, only a break of 1.1820 (minor support at 1.1840) would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from last Friday (13 Nov, spot at 1.1805) wherein EUR is ‘is still in consolidation, likely to trade between 1.1720 and 1.1880’. Upward momentum has improved slightly as EUR approaches the top of the expected range (high of 1.1868 yesterday). A breach of 1.1880 would not be surprising but EUR has to close above the major resistance 1.1920 in order to indicate that it has moved out of its consolidation phase. At this stage, the prospect for such a move is not high but it would continue to increase as long as EUR does not move below 1.1790 within these few days.”

NZD/USD: A move to 0.6970 remains in the pipeline – UOB

24-hour view: “NZD closed on a strong note yesterday (0.6905, +0.86%) and further gains appear likely. That said, overbought conditions suggest that the major resistance at 0.6940 is likely out of reach for now (next resistance is at 0.6970). Support is at 0.6885 followed by 0.6855.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a positive view in NZD for more than a week now. In our latest update from last Friday (13 Nov, spot at 0.6835), we highlighted that ‘upward momentum has been dented and a break of 0.6800 would indicate the rally in NZD has run its course’. NZD subsequently dipped to a low of 0.6811 before staging a strong advance. The up-move has gained considerable momentum and from here, NZD is likely to advance further to 0.6940, possibly as high as 0.6970. On the downside, a break of 0.6830 (‘strong support’ level previously at 0.6800) would indicate the current NZD strength has run its course.”

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