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market review 18 February 21

18 February 21

Economic Data Puts the EUR and Dollar in the Spotlight, with ECB Minutes also in Focus

It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S in focus. The ECB monetary policy meeting minutes are also due out.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Eurozone consumer confidence figures are due out late in the European session.
Ahead of the numbers, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes are also due out and will influence. Will the minutes highlight concerns over the economic outlook or stand by its growth forecasts for the year?
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.2041.

For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to knock the Pound off its road to recovery.
Market sentiment towards the economic outlook remains positive for the Pound near-term. Any risk aversion, however, and expect the Pound to come under pressure.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.3856.

For the USD
It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include Philly FED Manufacturing PMI figures and the weekly jobless claims numbers.
While both sets of numbers will influence, the weekly jobless claims figures will likely have the greatest impact.
Housing sector data for January also due out should have a muted impact on the Dollar and market risk sentiment.

EUR/USD to break above 1.2055 as there is room for a downside correction in the dollar

“President Joe Biden continues pushing through his proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. If Biden gets a smaller package – or any delay – would push investors back to bonds amid prospects of lower growth and less debt issuance. In turn, softer yields would make the dollar less attractive. All in all, progress on large stimulus is dollar positive and any road bumps would weigh on it.”
“The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes showed that the central bank is upbeat on America’s growth prospects in 2021 – more than beforehand. However, the Fed seems unmoved from all the talk about higher inflation and is unlikely to raise rates nor taper its bond-buying scheme. Under these circumstances, the greenback will likely remain under pressure.”
“EUR/USD’s most recent downward move was triggered by superb US Retail Sales – volume leaped by 5.3% in January, far above expectations. Some are concerned that this good news is bad news – as it may lower pressure for stimulus. However, unemployment remains high, with some ten million Americans still out of work. Weekly jobless claims are set to provide a reminder that the economy is still struggling.”
“Bears have taken over – EUR/USD has dropped below 1.2055, which has been serving as a separator of ranges since mid-January. The currency pair is now on the lower side of this critical barrier. Support awaits at 1.2020, the fresh trough, and then by the round 1.20 level. The aforementioned 1.2055 level now switches to resistance, and it is followed by 1.2080 and 1.2115.”

EUR/GBP approaches the 0.8671 April low – Commerzbank

The EUR/GBP pair is approaching 10-month lows at 0.8671. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, remarks that the pair would need to surpass the 0.8744 to alleviate some downside pressure.
Key quotes
“EUR/GBP is poised to reach the 0.8671 April low. Below here lies the 2016-2021 uptrend at 0.8586. Note there is a 13 count on the daily chart and this is a warning signal. We are going to attempt tiny longs, looking for this level to hold the initial test.”
“Initial resistance is the accelerated downtrend at 0.8744 and this is the minimum that needs to be overcome to alleviate downside pressure. Above here lies 0.8864/61 (lows seen in June, September and November) while capped here overall attention will remain on the downside.”

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