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18 January 21
Dollar holds onto gains, shrugging off upbeat Chinese GDP, vaccine news eyed
The greenback is holding onto its higher ground after disappointing US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims triggered a light-to-safety move at the end of last week. On the other hand, stocks are cheering China’s Gross Domestic Product, which grew at an annualized pace of 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The world’s second-largest economy returned to pre-pandemic growth levels.
EUR/USD has been changing hands under 1.21, as investors follow Italy’s ongoing political crisis. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is facing votes of confidence. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU Party chose centrist Armin Laschet as party leader, en route to the general elections in September. The European Central Bank’s decision is awaited on Thursday.
GBP/USD is below 1.36, shrugging off the rapid expansion of Britain’s vaccination campaign, which has already neared 6% of the population. Talks between the EU and the UK on post-Brexit arrangements for services are set to advance at a snail’s pace.
The big event of the week is the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on Wednesday. Investors are shrugging off fears of violence from supporters of outgoing President Donald Trump, and eyeing a flurry of Executive Orders from the incoming administration.
Biden will also attempt to pass his proposed $1.9 trillion relief package. Janet Yellen, the nominee for Treasury Secretary, is set to declare that dollar policy would be “market-oriented” potentially allowing the greenback to decline.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve – and Yellen’s successor – committed last week to highly accommodative policy.
The Canadian dollar is on the back foot in response to media reports that the incoming Biden administration would cancel the Keystone XL pipeline. The Bank of Canada announces its decision on Wednesday.
Gold has been edging higher on expectations of both monetary and fiscal stimulus, recovering from the lows.
EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 1.2080
EUR/USD managed to settle below the 50 EMA at 1.2110 and is testing the next support level at 1.2080. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below this level, it will move towards the next support level at 1.2060.
A move below the support at 1.2060 will push EUR/USD towards the next support level at 1.2040. If EUR/USD declines below 1.2040, it will head towards the support at the psychologically important support level at 1.2000. There are no important levels between 1.2040 and 1.2000 so this move may be fast.
On the upside, the previous support at the 50 EMA at 1.2110 will likely serve as the first resistance level for EUR/USD. If EUR/USD manages to settle above this level, it will gain some upside momentum and head towards the next resistance which is located at 1.2130. A successful test of the resistance level at 1.2130 will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.2155.
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/eur-usd-daily-forecast-test-of-support-at-1-2080-694758
https://www.investing.com/charts/forex-charts
GBP/USD Daily Forecast – British Pound Is Losing Ground At The Start Of The Week
GBP/USD managed to get below 1.3600 and is trying to settle below the 20 EMA.
GBP/USD is testing the nearest support level at the 20 EMA at 1.3570. If this test is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next support level which is located at 1.3540. RSI is in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
A move below 1.3540 will push GBP/USD towards the support at 1.3500. In case GBP/USD declines below the support at 1.3500, it will get to the test of the next support level at 1.3485.
On the upside, GBP/USD needs to stay above the 20 EMA at 1.3570 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for GBP/USD is located at 1.3625.
If GBP/USD settles above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3665. A successful test of the resistance at 1.3665 will push GBP/USD towards the resistance which is located at the recent highs at 1.3710.
https://www.investing.com/charts/forex-charts
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to stay under pressure while below strong resistance at $1,845
“On Wednesday, the Eurostat will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the eurozone. If CPI figures trigger a selloff in the EUR/USD pair, strong demand for the buck could also weigh on XAU/USD.”
“The initial support aligns at $1,817 (January 11 low) ahead of $1,800 (psychological level). With a daily close below $1,800, the selloff could continue toward $1,775, the starting point of December uptrend.”
“The 200-day SMA seems to have turned into the first significant hurdle at $1,845. If gold manages to clear that level, the next resistance aligns at $1,860 (50-day SMA) before $1,900 (psychological level).”
https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd-chart
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