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market review 18 March 21

18 March 21

Dollar wobbles after Fed pushes back against rate hike speculation

The U.S. dollar was on the defensive on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled it was in no hurry to raise interest rates through all of 2023 even as it saw a swift recovery in the world’s largest economy.
The dollar’s index against six major currencies stood at 91.488. It had hit a two-week low of 91.340 after remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened speculation the stronger economic outlook could propel the central bank to wind back its stimulus.
The euro eased to $1.19655, but was hovering close to its one-week high of $1.19900 after rallying 0.6% on Wednesday.
“What the Fed said is a very market-friendly outcome. It’s negative for the dollar, good for inflation expectations,” said Chris Weston, the head of research at Pepperstone Markets, a foreign exchange broker based in Melbourne.
“Ultimately, the market was kind of positioned for something a little bit more hawkish, and maybe the fact that those rate hikes are pushed out to 2023 has been enough to cause some decent dollar selling.”
The U.S. central bank now sees the economy growing 6.5% this year, which would be the largest annual jump in gross domestic product since 1984. Inflation is now expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% target to 2.4% this year, although officials think it will move back to around 2% in subsequent years.
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield edged back up to about 1.6710% and was nearing a more-than-one-year high.
Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.2% to as low as 108.620 yen after a Nikkei report said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to slightly widen an implicit band at which it allows long-term interest rates to move around its 0% target.
A recent Reuters poll showed two thirds of Japanese firms had expected the BOJ to curb rises in long-term interest rates and keep them steady ahead of the central bank’s review this week on how it will make its stimulus policy more sustainable.
The British pound traded at $1.3946, having gained about 0.5% overnight.
The Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark Bank Rate at a historic low of 0.1% and its bond-buying program unchanged at 895 billion pounds later in the day.
“Similar to what we’ve seen from the Fed, the Bank of England will talk up their prospects of the economy relative to where we’ve been, but at the same time emphasize that we’re still a long way from full recovery,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.
“We expect the BoE to gently warn against the shift in market pricing from a rate cut to around 50bps of hikes over the next three years.”
The Australian dollar rose to a two-week high of $0.78350, whereas its New Zealand counterpart briefly lost momentum after the country posted a surprise contraction in GDP in the final three months of last year.
The kiwi dollar last traded at $0.7241.

GBP/USD set to retest last week high at 1.4018 – Commerzbank

The GBP/USD pair continues to hold over the 55-day moving average at 1.3794 as the dollar weakens post the Federal Reserve decision. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the cable to retest the last week high of 1.4018.
“GBP/USD continues to hold over the 55-day ma at 1.3794, Elliott waves are all positive and we look for a further upside attempt. Provided that this holds, we would allow for a retest of 1.4018 (last week’s high), and this guards 1.4238/44 (the recent high).”

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Bearish Under 13044.00, Bullish Over 13243.25

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 13243.25.
June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly better during the pre-market session but there has been no follow-through to the upside after Wednesday’s rebound rally. The price action suggests investors are still assessing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement, economic projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 13243.25.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 13243.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into 13044.00. If this level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 12934.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 12743.50 to 12615.25 the next target.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 13243.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the minor top will indicate the buying is getting stronger. A move through the main top at 13316.75 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside since the next major resistance doesn’t come in until 13888.00.

Gold Futures: Extra gains in the pipeline

Traders increased their open interest positions in Gold futures markets by nearly 3.7K contracts on Wednesday, reaching the third build in a row according to preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume clinched the second consecutive build and rose by almost 46.7K contracts.
Gold shifts the target to $1,800
Gold prices extended the recovery for yet another session on Wednesday amidst rising open interest and volume. That said, further upside seems likely in the very near-term with the target at the key $1,800 mark per ounce troy.

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