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Market review 18 November 20

18 November 20

Brexit and Inflation Figures Put the Pound in the Spotlight

Brexit and October inflation figures put the Pound in focus. COVID-19 news and chatter from Capitol Hill will also need monitoring.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized October inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.

With the ECB set to deliver next month, the stats are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR, however.

With Brexit negotiations reaching the final day of talks, updates from Brexit will influence. COVID-19 news will also provide direction, however.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.08% to $1.1853.

For the Pound

It’s also a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. October inflation figures are due out later this morning.

With the BoE ready to drop rates into negative territory, the annual rate of inflation and wholesale inflation will be the key drivers.

The stats are unlikely to have a material impact on the Pound, however. With the EU Summit tomorrow, it’s all about Brexit. Optimism and hopes of a trade agreement have continued to support the Pound…

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.3246.

For The USD

It’s a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. October building permits and housing starts are due out later today.

With mortgage rates at close to record lows, the numbers are unlikely to provide the U.S Dollar with direction.

Expect U.S politics and COVID-19 news updates to be the key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.09% to 92.503.

GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Battles weekly resistance line ahead of UK CPI

GBP/JPY extends corrective pullback from 137.85 to around 138.08 during the pre-London open trading on Wednesday. While hopes of a Brexit deal favor the pair buyers, cautious sentiment ahead of the UK CPI for October and the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes probe the immediate upside momentum.

Also challenging the GBP/JPY bulls is a falling trend line from November 11, at 138.05 now, as well as bearish MACD signals.

Considering the expected weakness in the British CPI on MoM, mainly due to the national lockdown, coupled with the pair’s inability to cross the immediate resistance line, GBP/JPY sellers stay directed towards revisiting an area including late-October high and the last week’s low near 137.55/65.

During the quote’s extended weakness past-137.55, an upward sloping trend line from October 30, currently around 136.65, will gain the market attention.

Meanwhile, a clear upside break of the immediate resistance line will escalate the latest recovery moves toward the 139.00 round-figure. However, the 140.00 psychological magnet and the monthly peak surrounding 140.30 can challenge the GBP/JPY bulls then after.

Crude Oil Price Update – Strengthens Over $41.83, Weakens Under $40.33

The direction of the January WTI crude oil futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $41.83.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the January WTI crude oil futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $41.83.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $41.83 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of $40.56 to $40.33. If the latter fails to hold then look for the selling to extend into $49.32.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over $41.83 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for an eventual retest of $43.33 over the near-term.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bounces off 50-bar SMA towards two-week-old resistance line

USD/CAD wobbles around 1.3100 during the initial Asian session on Wednesday. The pair recently recovered from 50-bar SMA amid normal RSI conditions, which in turn suggest further corrective pullback towards a falling trend line from November 04.

Other than the stated resistance line near 1.3135, 200-bar SMA around 1.3165 also challenges the USD/CAD buyers ahead of pushing them towards the 1.3200 round-figure.

Further, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 29 to November 09 downside, close to 1.3215, offers an extra resistance to watch for the buyers.

Meanwhile, a downside break below the 50-bar SMA level of 1.3070 will direct USD/CAD sellers towards the 1.3000 psychological magnet before highlighting 1.2960 support.

Though, any further weakness past-1.2960 will not refrain from challenging the monthly low of 1.2928.

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