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Market review 19 November 20

19 November 20

Economic Data, COVID-19, and the EU Summit Put the USD, EUR, and the GBP in Focus

While economic data put the Dollar in focus, the EU Summit will place the EUR and the Pound in the Spotlight.

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of COVID-19 news updates and Brexit chatter. Both the Pound and the EUR have stood their ground until now, can that continue?

Today’s EU Summit, not only puts the Pound in the spotlight, however. Disagreements over the EU budget and Recovery Fund has also resurfaced. This is expected to be another hot topic at the Summit.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is due to speak later today. Any chatter on monetary policy will need monitoring. The big question will be whether the ECB will hold back following positive news from both Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. on COVID-19 vaccine trials. Until now, Lagarde as suggested that the ECB will deliver.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.13% to $1.1838.

For the Pound

It’s also a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. CBI Industrial Trend Orders for November are due out later today.

With Brexit and COVID-19 in focus, service sector data will likely have a far greater influence near-term. That should therefore limit any influence from the CBI numbers for November.

Away from the economic calendar, it’s the EU Summit. This was supposed to be the final deadline for Brexit talks, so expect plenty of influence from the news wires.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.30% to $1.3233.

For The USD

It’s a busier day ahead for the U.S Dollar. October homes sales, November Philly FED Manufacturing, and the weekly jobless claim are in focus.

Expect the Philly FED and jobless claims to have the greatest influence on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and updates on COVID-19 will remain key drivers.

Any progress towards a stimulus package would support riskier assets, though the chances of any progress remain slim. It’s all about the expectation for now…

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.22% to 92.517.

Crude Oil Futures: Extra gains likely very near-term

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets rose by around 8.7K contracts following two consecutive daily pullbacks on Wednesday, while volume retreated for the second session in a row, this time by around 8.8K contracts.

WTI remains capped by $43.00/bbl

Wednesday’s uptick in WTI was amidst rising open interest, opening the door to a potential continuation of the move in the very near-term. Against this, the immediate resistance is located at the monthly peaks just above the $43.00 mark per barrel (November 11).

GBP/USD fails again at 1.3310 – Commerzbank

“GBP/USD has again tested the 78.6% retracement at 1.3310. Directly above here lies key resistance offered by the 1.3422 multi-year downtrend and we look for this to cap the market and provoke failure. This is reinforced by the 1.3515 December 2019 high.”

“Nearby support is offered by the 55-day moving average at 1.2995 and also by 1.2942 the five-month uptrend. We would allow for a slide back to here short-term.”

USD/CAD Price Analysis: 1.3095 becomes a tough nut to crack for buyers

USD/CAD rises to 1.3095 during the early Thursday’s trading in Asia. In doing so, the pair confronts a joint of 200-hour EMA and a falling trend line from November 13, forming part of a short-term falling wedge.

Although bullish MACD favors the pair’s strength, the key resistance confluence, followed by the 1.3100 threshold, can challenge the USD/CAD buyers.

Should the quote crosses 1.3100 mark, the last Friday’s high of 1.3172 can offer an intermediate halt before propelling the quote towards the monthly peak surrounding 1.3370. Meanwhile, the mid-October top around 1.3260 can act as an intermediate halt.

Alternatively, 50% Fibonacci retracement of November 09-13 upside, near 1.3050 may act as immediate support to watch for the USD/CAD sellers ahead of the bullish pattern’s lower line, currently around 1.3030.

In a case where the bears dominate past-1.3030, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3020 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet can probe further downside before highlighting the monthly bottom close to 1.2930.

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