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Markets are calm after a decline on Monday but the dollar remains depressed. Mixed news about the virus and US infrastructure are eyed, while cryptocurrencies extend their decline.
The US dollar is on the back foot for the second consecutive day, with EUR/USD changing hands at around 1.2060, the highest since early March. The greenback’s decline comes despite an uptick in US Treasury yields. Returns on benchmark ten-year bonds are around 1.60%.
The market mood is relatively calm, yet Wall Street ended Monday’s session with moderate falls, not gains. Earnings season is in full swing.
US President Joe Biden hosted members of Congress from both parties in an attempt to garner support for his infrastructure spending programs. Statements coming after the encounter have shown an upbeat mood but no substantial progress.
GBP/USD has managed to take advantage of dollar weakness to peek above 1.40 with Britain’s successful vaccination campaign also helping. The UK’s jobs figures are set to show a minor increase in the Unemployment Rate from 5% to 5.1%.
Gold is trading around $1,770, consolidating its gains from previous days and weathering the increase in US yields.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned the US not to “boss around” and also cautioned against trade decoupling. He committed his country, the world’s second-largest economy to fighting climate change.
Commodity currencies are big beneficiaries, with AUD/USD advancing toward 0.78 despite minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia stating that the jobless rate remains too high.
Cryptocurrencies have been extending their losses, with Bitcoin pressured around $55,000 and Ethereum suffering its sixth consecutive down day, changing hands at around $21,40. Analysts see the drop as a healthy correction. XRP is around $1.30 and Dogecoin, which started as a joke, is already worth some $54,000.
The EUR/USD pair has eroded the 1.1990/1.2014 pivot to reassert the up move as theUS Dollar drops sharply lower, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, reports.
EUR/USD is bid above 1.1885
“EUR/USD has at last eroded the 1.1990/1.2014 pivot, and attention has reverted to the topside and initial resistance is the March 3 high at 1.2115, ahead of 1.2243, the February high.
“The Elliott wave count is suggesting dips lower are likely to remain fairly tepid and hold around 1.1890.”
“This move adds weight to the idea that the market has resumed its longer term bull trend against the dollar.”
GBP/USD gained strong upside momentum and is testing the resistance at 1.4000.
GBP/USD managed to get above the resistance at 1.3980 and is testing the major resistance level at 1.4000. Back in March, GBP/USD made several attempts to settle above this level but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum.
In case GBP/USD settles above 1.4000, it will move towards the next resistance level at 1.4020. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.4050. If GBP/USD gets above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.4080.
On the support side, the previous resistance at 1.3980 will serve as the first support level for GBP/USD. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3950. A successful test of the support at 1.3950 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.3920.
The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 13940.25.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on yesterday’s price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 13940.25.
A sustained move over 13940.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of the minor top at 14059.50. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside.
A sustained move under 13940.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the next minor 50% level at 13786.00. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 13512.50 the next likely downside target.
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