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20 August 2020

King dollar holds the reign, gold licks wounds ahead of US Jobless Claims

The US dollar kept its recovery momentum intact on Thursday, consolidating Wednesday’s solid comeback led by a strong bond auction, further accelerated by the FOMC July meeting’s minutes.

FOMC minutes showed that the Fed officials raised doubts over the potential benefits of the yield curve control policy while reiterating that a “highly accommodative stance of monetary policy likely needed for some time.”

EUR/USD consolidated the sell-off to 1.1830, with the risks skewed to the downside amid coronavirus resurgence in Europe.

GBP/USD fell back below 1.3100 due to looming Brexit concerns, especially in light of the latest disagreements over the UK truckers’ access to Europe.

USD/JPY held steady above 106.00, divided between negative risk tone and dollar strength.

AUD/USD bounced-back towards 0.7200 after a Bloomberg report cited that the US and China plan resumption of the delayed trade talks. NZD/USD was underpinned by the coordinated efforts by the RBNZ and NZ government to support businesses. The Chinese central bank’s rates on-hold decision had little impact on the Antipodeans.

USD/CAD held onto gains above 1.3200, helped by falling WTI prices. The US oil ignored President Donald Trump’s readiness to restore nearly all UN sanctions on Iran.

Oil weakened below $43 after the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) said that the pace of oil market recovery appeared to be slower than expected amid with growing risks of a prolonged second wave of COVID-19.

Gold struggled to extend the bounce above $1950 after dropping 3.67% on Wednesday.


The single currency’s selloff from yesterday’s Asian high at 1.1952 to as low as 1.1831 in New York afternoon after the release of FOMC minutes suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top at Tuesday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1783, however, oversold condition would keep price above 1.1755/56 and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.1915 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of 1.1965 early next week.

Gold Futures: Scope for further pullbacks

Traders scaled back their open interest positions in Gold futures markets by almost 4K contracts on Wednesday, according to preliminary figures from CME Group. Volume, in the same time, increased for the third session in a row, this time by around 87.5K contracts.

Gold could drop below $1,880/oz

Prices of the ounce troy of Gold receded markedly on Wednesday and closed near the $1,920 level. The negative performance was accompanied by rising volume and opening interest, opening the door to a potential move to monthly lows in the sub-$1,880 area per ounce.

USD/JPY defends 106.00 amid fresh dollar selling

USD/JPY defends 106.00 amid fresh US dollar weakness across the board, as the risk-off action in the Asian equities and falling Treasury yields weigh. FOMC minutes underscored concerns over the economic recovery from the coronavirus-induced downturn.

The USD/JPY pair is battling to recover above the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, after briefly piercing the 68.2% retracement of the same rally. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has recovered above its 20 and 100 SMA, which stand a few pips below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, recovered some ground but are still unable to clear their midlines. Beyond the 106.00 level, the pair would face the next relevant resistance at 106.35, the next Fibonacci level.

Support levels: 105.60 105.25 104.85

Resistance levels: 106.35 106.70 107.10

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