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market review 20 January 21

20 January 21

Inauguration Day and the Bank of Canada Put the Greenback and the Loonie in Focus

It’s Inauguration Day, with all eyes on Capitol Hill. On the monetary policy front, the BoC is in action, with economic data from the UK also in focus later today.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. German wholesale inflation figures for December and finalized December inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.
Barring marked revision from prelim Eurozone inflation figures, we don’t expect the stats to have too much influence, however.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 vaccine news along with the latest COVID-19 figures and Italian politics will provide direction.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.10% to $1.2141.

For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. December inflation and wholesale inflation figures are due out of the UK later today.
A pickup in inflationary pressures should deliver support for the Pound. Wholesale inflationary pressures will also need to see a pickup, however.
While the stats will influence, the market focus will remain on the UK Government’s progress towards ending the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.3647.

For the USD
It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback and the broader markets with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Greenback in the hands of chatter from Capitol Hill and COVID-19 news.
It’s Inauguration Day, so expect market focus to be on Capitol Hill. Upon entering the Oval Office, Biden is expected to begin repealing Trump policy.

For the Loonie
It’s a busy day on the economic data front. December inflation figures are due out ahead of the Bank of Canada’s first monetary policy decision of the year.
With the markets likely to hold out for the BoC rate statement and press conference, inflation figures will likely have a relatively muted impact on the Loonie.
Rising crude oil prices and optimism towards the economic outlook is likely to leave the BoC in a holding pattern. It remains to be seen, however, whether there’s any hawkish chatter.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.3665

GBP/USD managed to settle above the resistance at 1.3625 and is trying to settle above the next resistance level at 1.3665.
GBP/USD gained upside momentum and is trying to settle above the nearest resistance level at 1.3665. If this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next resistance at 1.3710. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
A move above 1.3710 will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.3755. In case GBP/USD gets above the resistance at 1.3755, it will move towards the resistance at 1.3785.
On the support side, the nearest support for GBP/USD is located at 1.3625. In case GBP/USD declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.3585.
The next support is located at 1.3575, so GBP/USD will likely receive material support in the 1.3575 – 1.3585 area. A move below this support area will push GBP/USD towards the support at 1.3540.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bounces off intraday low as bears struggle to keep 1.2700

USD/CAD remains on the back-foot near the weekly low of 1.2706, currently down 0.18% near 1.2711, during early Wednesday. In doing so, the quote portrays a descending triangle bullish chart pattern while also staying below 200-bar SMA.
Considering the absence of oversold RSI conditions, USD/CAD selling is likely to stretch towards the stated triangle’s support. However, key events like the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Canada and US President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in the White House, probe the sellers.
During the quote’s downside towards the triangle support near 1.2630-25, the 1.2660 level can act as an intermediate halt.
It should additionally be noted that USD/CAD bears’ dominance past-1.2625 will be tested by the 1.2600 round-figure ahead of highlighting the April 2018 low around 1.2525.
Alternatively, an upside break of the triangle should have enough strength to cross 200-bar SMA, currently around 1.2770 to aim for the monthly near 1.2835 and the late-December top close to 1.2960.
In a case where the USD/CAD rallies past-1.2960, the 1.3000 psychological magnet and December 2020 top of 1.3010 will be the key to watch.

Gold Price Analysis: Acceptance above 200-DMA at $1846 is critical for XAU/USD

“On Wednesday, Joe Biden will take the Presidential office and his inaugural speech will be closely eyed for fresh hints on the fiscal stimulus and the next direction in gold. In the meantime, the yellow metal will continue to cheer the calls for more fiscal spending under the Biden administration and growing covid cases in the US. However, the risk-on rally in global stocks could likely cap the upside in the metal.”
“Daily closing above the critical hurdle of the 200-DMA at $1846 is needed to negate the near-term downside bias. Acceptance above the 200-DMA barrier could expose a powerful 50-DMA hurdle at $1860. Further up, the 21-DMA at $1876 will be on the bulls’ radar.”
“A failure to resist above the 200-DMA could revoke the recovery momentum, calling for a retest of the multi-week lows of $1803. A break below which the December low at $1775 could be put to test.”

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