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20 October 2020

A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves U.S Politics, COVID-19, and Brexit in Focus

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Wholesale inflation figures for September are due out of Germany.

We don’t expect too much influence on the EUR, however, with COVID-19 numbers and any Brexit chatter in focus.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.1771.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave any further chatter on Brexit and updates on COVID-19 in focus.

While Downing Street announced an end to negotiations, the markets are expecting talks to resume. Boris Johnson left the door open for further talks, though it remains to be seen whether the EU will compromise…

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.2948.

For the USD

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar.

September building permits and housing starts are due out later this afternoon.

Barring particularly dire numbers, we would expect the markets to brush aside the numbers.

The focus will be on the U.S Presidential Election polls, the Senate polls, and chatter from Capitol Hill.

Expect updates on COVID-19 to also influence on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 93.404.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead. There are no key stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of COVID-19 and U.S politics on the day. A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases will continue to test support for the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.3190 against the U.S Dollar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 11761.75, Weakens Under 11550.50

Short-Term Outlook

We’re going to be watching trader reaction to 11761.75 early Tuesday since this is likely to set the tone for the session. Over the short-run, however, it’s probably best to watch 11761.75 and 11550.50.

Buyers may try to form a support base inside 11761.75 to 11550.50.

We are also confident that a break down under 11550.50 will not mean a major break is coming. Buyers are still likely to come in at 11452.75 to 11264.75.

We’re also pretty confident that new fiscal stimulus is coming, but we don’t know when, or even the size of the deal. In the meantime, investors may continue to probe the downside, looking for a value area. Basically, I still like the upside potential of this market, except I only want to buy at my price. I think chasing a rally is dangerous at this time and at current price levels.

GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Extends pullback from weekly resistance line towards 100-HMA

GBP/JPY drops to 136.56, down 0.05% intraday, during the pre-UK open trading on Tuesday. The pair surged to the highest in four days on Monday but failed to cross a downward sloping trend line from October 11.

The resultant moves tried bouncing off 100-HMA but failed to rise past-136.77, which in turn directs the quote towards revisiting the HMA level of 136.43.

With the normal RSI conditions favoring the bears, the quote is likely to remain pressured below 136.43 while directing the GBP/JPY sellers towards the 136.00 threshold.

Though, any more weakness below 136.00 will be tamed by a two-day bottom surrounding 135.40, a break of which will challenge the monthly low of 135.05.

Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the mentioned resistance line, at 137.20 now, will help the GBP/JPY bulls to aim for the monthly high near 137.85 before attacking the 138.00 round-figure.

EUR/USD: Bulls are in control and eye 1.1795

Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, believes the bulls are taking over the EUR/USD pair as Tuesday’s 4-hour chart is showing an improved position for them. EUR/USD now looks set to test the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) located at 1.1795 after having risen by nearly 0.5% on Monday.

Key quotes

“Euro/dollar has managed to rise above the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages on the 4-hour chart – a bullish development. Momentum has also turned positive while the Relative Strength Index is below 70, outside overbought conditions.”

“Resistance awaits at 1.1795, Monday’s peak, followed by 1.1830, which is October’s top. The next line to watch is 1.1870.”

“Support is at 1.1720, which is a swing low last week, followed by 1.1685, a double-bottom. Further below, 1.1625 awaits EUR/USD.”

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