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market review 22 January 21

22 January 21

A Busy Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the Loonie, the Pound, and the Greenback in Focus

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Private sector PMIs will give the markets an idea of what impact the 2nd wave has had on the private sector.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim January private sector PMI figures for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out later today.
While Germany’s manufacturing and the Eurozone’s PMI will be key drivers, any weak numbers would test support for the EUR.
With lockdown measures continuing into January, service sector activity will likely take a hit. To what extent and whether the manufacturing sector is also affected remains to be seen…
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 vaccine news along with the latest COVID-19 figures will provide direction.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.2167.

For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. December retail sales and January prelim private sector PMI figures are due out today.
Expect the retail sales and services PMI to be the key drivers, with lockdown measures in place.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.06% to $1.3725.

For the USD
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include private sector PMI figures for January and December existing home sales figures.
Expect January’s prelim services PMI to be the key driver.
Away from the economic calendar, policy decisions from the Oval Office together with COVID-19 news updates will also influence.

EUR/USD to test 1.20 amid Italian political stress – Westpac

“Inflation risks remain to the downside within the region given the extension of stringent lockdowns across its major economies. ZEW current conditions in the region have failed to follow the surges seen in ZEW expectations. The index tends to lead regional inflation and this therefore underscores the lack of inflationary pressures.”
“In addition to vaccine roll-outs there is bound to be further discussion about Recovery Fund implementation. Italy’s political stress may cause net donor countries to resist early release of funds, putting pressure on post-covid lockdown recovery and swinging easing pressure back on to ECB.”
“EUR/USD has been capped around 1.23 and is at risk of sorely retesting 1.20 range support.”

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trend Changes to Up on Move Through .7805

The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7739.
Short-Term Outlook
The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7739.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over .7739 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out .7782 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the momentum needed to take out a pair of main tops at .7805 and .7820.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under .7739 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main bottom at .7659.
Taking out .7659 will confirm that .7782 is a new secondary lower top. This would signal the AUD/USD is preparing to rollover to the downside.

Chart of the Day: USDCHF

In recent weeks the USD has been less reluctant to weaken against the CHF (compared with other G10 currencies) which may lead to an eventual inverted head and shoulder pattern in the event the .8825 level can hold on dips. This is near the December 17th 2020 low of .8822. The “neckline” is very clear at the .8925 level and if broken we should see a test of the key .9000 level once again

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