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Market review 23 November 20

23 November 20

Private Sector PMIs and Brexit Put the EUR, the Pound, and the Dollar in Focus

It’s a busy day ahead, with private sector PMI numbers in focus. Brexit, COVID-19, and U.S stimulus package updates will also influence.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim private sector PMI numbers for November for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out later today.

With parts of the EU back in lockdown mode, expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers. The ECB has assured of support next month, today’s numbers could give an idea of what kind of support to expect.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1861.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim private sector PMI numbers for November are due out.

With lockdown measures in place from the start of the month, today’s figures could force the BoE’s hand in delivering negative rates…

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit will continue to be a key area of focus. From the weekend, news of a post-Brexit trade agreement with Canada should provide some early support.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.19% to $1.3300.

Across the Pond

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. November’s prelim private sector PMIs are due out. With labor market conditions in dire straits as a result of containment measures in place, service sector activity will be the main focal point.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and COVID-19 news updates will remain key drivers.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 92.360.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.1880 Remains A Wall

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD continues its attempts to settle above the nearest resistance level at 1.1880. This resistance level has already been tested many times and proved its strength.

If EUR/USD gets above the resistance at 1.1880, it will have to deal with another significant resistance level at 1.1910.

In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.1910, it will gain upside momentum and head towards the next resistance at 1.1965. A successful test of the resistance at 1.1965 will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance at 1.2000.

On the support side, the nearest support level is located at the 20 EMA at 1.1830. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the next support level at the 50 EMA at 1.1800.

USD/JPY is primed for further losses

“Technically, the USD/JPY remains immured in a descending channel that can be stretched back to December 2016, though the much narrower channel from the beginning of July is more relevant for current trading. Support is primarily at 103.30 which marks the bottom on November 6 and the start line for the rally on the 9th. Those were the lowest points since the crash and immediate recovery in March.”

“Technically, all indicators point lower. The descending channel is intact and well-defined. Resistance lines beginning at 104.30 are more plentiful and endorsed by far greater price action. The moving averages are all above market levels.”

Gold to regain upside momentum on a break above $1877

“Gold clings onto the recent recovery gains so far this Monday, benefiting from the persistent weak tone seen around the US dollar amid the vaccine optimism. Increased expectations over the rapid rollout of the covid vaccines on both sides of the Atlantic weigh on the safe-haven greenback.”

“Gold’s upside could be capped by the risk-on rally in the global stocks. On the macro front, the US Preliminary Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be featured later in the NA session. Also, the global covid statistics and vaccine updates will be closely followed.”

“Gold remains capped below the horizontal 200-hourly moving averages (HMA) at $1877, which is tough not crack for the XAU bulls. Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 21-HMA at $1871 offers immediate support.”

“Acceptance above the 200-HMA barrier at $1877 is critical to reviving the recovery momentum from the powerful $1850 support area. The next upside target is aligned at $1900.”

“On the flip side, 50-HMA at $1867 is the relevant support, below which the October low of $1860 could be tested. Only a daily close below $1850 could call for a resumption of the correction from record highs of $2075.”

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