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23 October 2020

European Equities: Private Sector PMIs, COVID-19, and U.S Politics in Focus

From the U.S

It was also a busier day on the economic calendar, with the weekly jobless claims and existing home sales figures in focus.

In the week ending 16th October, initial jobless claims came in at 787k, which was well below a forecasted 860k. In the week prior, claims had stood at 842k.

Housing sector data had a muted impact on the European majors late in the day.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Thursday. Volkswagen rose by 0.95%, with BMW and Daimler gaining 0.47% and by 0.56% respectively. Continental bucked the trend, however, falling by 0.64%.

It was also a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.42%, while Commerzbank fell by 1.18%

From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas fell by 0.15%, while Credit Agricole and Soc Gen rose by 0.74% and by 0.94% respectively.

It was a bullish day for the French auto sector, however. Peugeot and Renault ended the day with gains of 2.19% and 2.03% respectively.

Air France-KLM rallied by 3.13%, with Airbus SE rising by 0.61%.

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats include French, German, and Eurozone private sector PMI figures for October.

We would expect plenty of influence from the numbers following the disappointment in September.

From the U.S, the private sector PMIs and U.S politics will also influence later in the day.

Going into the European open, expect market reaction to the final U.S Presidential debate to set the tone.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was down by 16 points, while the DAX was up by 21.5 points.

USD/CAD intraday: Further advance

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3135

Our preference

Long positions above 1.3135 with targets at 1.3205 & 1.3230 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 1.3135 look for further downside with 1.3105 & 1.3080 as targets.


The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

AUD/USD: Turning down

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7115

Our preference

Short positions below 0.7115 with targets at 0.7070 & 0.7045 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Above 0.7115 look for further upside with 0.7135 & 0.7150 as targets.


The RSI calls for a new down leg

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

USD/JPY – 104.75… Although the Japanese yen traded with a firm bias and gained to 104.74 in Asia yesterday, price fell to 104.48 in European morning on cross-selling in jpy. However, renewed buying interest emerged and the pair rose to 104.92 near New York close on usd’s broad-based strength, then 104.93 in Australia today before retreating to 104.70 at Asian open.

Despite dollar’s fall below previous October’s 104.95 low (now resistance) to a near 1-month bottom at 104.35 on Wednesday, subsequent strong bounce to 104.93 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary trough and 104.95 needs to hold to maintain bearish view, below 104.35 would bring re-test of 104.01, where break would extend downtrend from 111.71 (March) to 103.85/90.

Offers are tipped at 104.85/90 with stops above there while bids are noted at 104.45-40 with move below and stops below 104.10-00.

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