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WTI eases to $42.35 while heading into Monday’s European market open. The oil benchmark earlier bounced off 200-bar SMA at the start of the week. However, the upside momentum couldn’t get support from MACD and reversed earlier than the short-term resistance line.
Considering the MACD and RSI conditions, not to forget multiple upside barriers beyond the adjacent trend line from August 19, the oil prices are likely to remain pressured.
As a result, the quote’s another attempt to slip below 200-bar SMA level of $41.55 can’t be ruled out. In doing so, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July 30 to August 05 upside, respectively near $41.35 and $40.80, will be on their radars.
It should, however, be noted that the commodity’s further weakness will be tamed by $40.00 and the monthly bottom close to $39.75 ahead of highlighting the previous month’s bottom near $38.75/70.
On the flip side, buyers will wait for a clear break of nearby resistance line, at $42.85 now, to attack a falling trend line from August 05, currently around $43.20.
In a case where the bulls dominate past-$43.20, the monthly high close to $43.65 and February month’s low around $44.00 will gain market attention.
The AUD/USD pair attracted some dip-buying near the lower end of a one-month-old ascending channel and has now recovered around 30 pips from the Asian session lows. The mentioned support is pegged near the 0.7145 region, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
That said, bulls might still wait for a sustained move beyond the 0.7200 mark before placing aggressive bets. Above the mentioned level, the pair is likely to accelerate the momentum back towards YTD tops, around the 0.7275 area, before eventually aiming to reclaim the 0.7300 mark.
On the flip side, a sustained break below the trend-channel support might be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of the corrective slide towards, even below the 0.7100 mark, towards retesting monthly lows, around the 0.7075 zone.
A subsequent slide is likely to find decent support, rather might be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near a previous strong resistance breakpoint near the 0.7050-40 region.
Silver remains sluggish around $26.45, down 1.27% on a day, before the European markets open for Monday’s trading. The white metal bounced off 21-day SMA on Friday but the failure to keep the same dragged the quote back to the short-term key SMA level.
While sellers may wait for the clear break below 21-day SMA level of $26.25, a lower high formation since the early-August joins bearish MACD to keep the bulls away.
Even so, the commodity’s weakness past-$26.25 will have to slip below an ascending trend line from July 28, at $24.25, to please the pessimists with 50-day SMA around $22.00.
Alternatively, an upside break of the descending trend line from August 07, at $27.45 now, will have to cross $28.50 before attacking the monthly high of $29.85.
Also acting as an upside barrier beyond $29.85 will be $30.00 and late-January 2013 bottom around $30.75.
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