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25 August 2020

EUR/JPY to retest the 126.75 level – Commerzbank

EUR/JPY gained 0.11% on Monday, ending a six-day losing streak, after nearing the uptrend at 124.34. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, recommends raising the stop to 124.30, partially cover 126.75 and exit the remainder 127.50.

Key quotes

“EUR/JPY has slipped back to and so far held over the four-month uptrend at 124.34. This suggests that the market remains capable of retesting the 126.75 peak from mid-August and the 2014-2020 resistance line lies at 127.53. A resistance line only connects two points and we have no strong bias on whether this will hold or not.”

“Please note that the intraday Elliott wave count is now negative and this implies that the four-month support line at 124.34 is exposed. Failure here would target the January high at 122.88. The latter guards the July low at 120.28.”

“Above the 127.53 downtrend we have the 200-month ma at 130.57.”

Dax: A break above 13300 is a buy signal targeting 13400

Dax 30 September beat key resistance at 12870/900 for buy signal targeting 12960/990 & last week’s high at 13040/050, before reaching 13194 as I write early this morning.

Daily Analysis

Dax beats last week’s high at 13040/050 for further bullish signals as we look for a test of to July recovery high at 13300/304. Obviously a break higher is a buy signal targeting 13400/420 & 13490/500. Eventually we look for 13550 & 13620/640.

Important support at 13100/13050 but longs need stops below 12990.

EUR/USD: Negative outlook – Best selling opportunity at 1.1830

EURUSD outlook negative so we are looking to sell in to a bounce again today. Minor resistance at 1.1800/10 being tested as I write, but probably a better selling opportunity at 1.1830/40 . Unlikely but a break higher meets strong resistance at 1.1870/80.

I think eventually we will turn lower targeting 1.1755/50 & 1.1730/20, perhaps as far as strong support at 1.1660/50 this week.

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