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Market review 25 November 20

25 November 20

Economic Data Puts the U.S Dollar and the U.S Economy in the Spotlight

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with U.S stats in focus. The markets may be in a forgiving mood… The FOMC minutes will also draw interest.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. From France, job seeker figures are due out later today. Barring particularly dire numbers, the impact on the EUR will likely be muted, however.

November’s private sector PMI numbers and containment measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 will impact labor market conditions. Weak numbers should, therefore, not be a surprise.

From the ECB, the Financial Stability Review will have an influence. How the ECB views financial stability amidst the economic meltdown is of particular relevance to what lies ahead on the policy front.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09% to $1.1903.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out, leaving the Pound in the hands of Brexit and market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.3360.

For The USD

It’s also a particularly busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. A data deluge ahead of Thanksgiving puts the Dollar and riskier assets in the spotlight.

Key stats include the weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, 2nd estimate GDP, and personal spending figures.

Other stats due out include inflation, durable goods, consumer sentiment, and new home sales figures. These stats should have a relatively muted impact on the Dollar and the broader financial markets, however.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes will also influence late in the session.

The markets are expecting the FED to deliver more support amidst the political wrangling on Capitol Hill. Failure by lawmakers to deliver a COVID-19 stimulus package has put the onus back on the FED.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Tests The Major Resistance Level

EUR/USD is trying to settle above the key resistance level at 1.1910.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD gained some upside momentum and is trying to settle above the resistance area at 1.1880 – 1.1910. This resistance area has already been tested many times and proved its strength.

However, it looks like EUR/USD has a good chance to get above 1.1910 as the U.S. Dollar Index is very close to a move below the key support at 92.10.

If EUR/USD manages to settle above 1.1910, it will gain strong upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at 1.1965. A move above 1.1965 will open the way to the psychologically important resistance level at 1.2000.

On the support side, EUR/USD needs to get below 1.1880 to have a chance to develop downside momentum. If EUR/USD settles below 1.1880, it will decline towards the next support level which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.1840.

In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the support at the 20 EMA, it will continue its downside move and head towards the next support at the 50 EMA near 1.1800.

AUD/USD looks ready to break above 0.7400 – UOB

24-hour view: “Our expectation for AUD to ‘consolidate within a 0.7260/0.7330 range’ yesterday was wrong as it soared to a high of 0.7368, dropped back down to an overnight low of 0.7312 before snapping back up to end the day on a strong note at 0.7361 (+1.02%). Despite the relatively choppy price actions, upward momentum appears to be strong and AUD is expected to move higher even though the year-todate high at 0.7413 is likely out of reach (there is a minor resistance at 0.7400). On the downside, a breach of 0.7320 would indicate the current upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 0.7340).”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted yesterday (24 Nov, spot at 0.7295) that ‘unless AUD ‘punches’ above 0.7345 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 0.7245 would not be surprising and would indicate that AUD could trade sideways for a while’. AUD subsequently cracked 0.7345 (high of 0.7368) and it appears that AUD is ready to tackle the year-to-date high at 0.7413. A daily closing above 0.7413 would be a rather strong signal that AUD could continue to advance in the coming days (next resistance is at 0.7455). All in, the current positive outlook for AUD is deemed as intact unless it moves below 0.7285 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.7245 yesterday).”

EUR/GBP Price Analysis: 100-hour EMA tests recovery moves above 0.8900

EUR/GBP battles short-term resistance as buyers attack the intraday high of 0.8915 during the pre-European session on Wednesday.

Although bullish MACD suggests the pair’s successful break above the immediate hurdle of 100-hour EMA, a joint of 200-hour EMA and a falling trend line from November 16, currently around 0.8932/33, will be a tough nut to crack for the EUR/GBP bulls.

If at all the quote manages to stay positive beyond 0.8933, it’s run-up towards the 0.9000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, lows marked twice during the week near 0.8875 offer nearby important support to watch as a downside break of which can probe the monthly low of 0.8861.

Also, the EUR/GBP sellers’ dominance past-0.8861 will make the pair vulnerable to revisit the early May month’s high near 0.8815.

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