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market review 26 April 21

26 April 21

Dollar grinds lower on bets U.S. tapering remains distant

The dollar edged lower on Monday amid speculation that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will shun talk of tapering bond purchases at a policy meeting this week.
The euro rose to a near two-month high against the greenback before data later on Monday forecast to show an improvement in German business sentiment, which would bolster hopes for a brighter economic outlook.
Powell is likely to face questions over whether an improving labour market and rising coronavirus vaccinations warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing, but most analysts expect him to say such talk is premature, which would put downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar.
“The dollar is likely to continue to trend lower in line with the gathering momentum in the world economy,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a research note.
“We expect the Fed policy meeting to be a non-event for the dollar. The U.S. economy is a long way from meeting the ‘substantial further progress’ threshold for the Fed to taper its asset purchases.”
The dollar stood at 107.75 yen, close to its lowest since March 4.
The euro rose to $1.2110, adding to gains made on Friday after positive data on European services and manufacturing activity.
A survey from Germany’s Ifo institute due later on Monday is expected to show business conditions continued to improve in Europe’s largest economy.
The British pound was quoted at $1.3897, adding to a 0.3% gain in the previous session.
The dollar was little changed at 0.9128 Swiss franc, close to a two-month low.
The Fed’s next meeting ends on Wednesday, and while no major policy changes are expected, investors will pay close attention to Powell’s comments after the meeting.
Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose toward one-month highs but are likely to track moves in global commodity prices, traders said.

GBP/USD: A break above 1.4000 is within reach – ING

Last week’s data-flow out of the UK was once again supportive for sterling, as strong retail sales, good PMIs, inflation rising (although slightly below expectations) and unemployment edging lower all endorsed the strong recovery narrative in the country. GBP/USD is flirting with the 1.39 level and economists at ING believe a break above 1.40 is on the cards.
Fed still positioned very dovishly at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting
“The data calendar is very quiet, and no Bank of England officials are scheduled to speak.”
“With covid cases rising again across the world and the UK having recently relaxed containment measures, incoming contagion/hospitalisation data in the UK will be key to test the effectiveness of the country’s vaccination programme, and ultimately drive expectations about the economic recovery.”
“From a technical perspective, sterling still scores as undervalued against the dollar, suggesting GBP/USD should be able to break above 1.4000 in the coming days without excessive resistance, especially if our bearish view ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday proves correct.”

Crude Oil Price Update – Sustained Move Under $62.29 Targets $60.83 to $60.61

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $62.29.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $62.29.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $62.29 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $60.83, followed by the minor bottom at $60.61. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target the main 50% level at $59.17.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $62.20 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into $63.47. This is followed by the new main top at $64.38.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Appears to Be Headed Toward Test of 107.154 – 106.780 Support Cluster

The direction of the USD/JPY on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 107.877.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the USD/JPY on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 107.877.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 107.877 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is Friday’s low at 107.479, followed by the main 50% level at 107.154.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 107.877 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the Fibonacci level at 108.230. We could see more short-covering if this level is overtaken.
Side Notes
Taking out 107.479 then closing higher for the session will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This won’t change the trend to up, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

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