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market review 26 February 21

26 February 21

Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Dollar in Spotlight, with the Middle East also in Focus

Economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S will be in focus later today. Market reaction and Iran’s response to U.S military action in Syria will also influence.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. French consumer spending figures are due out along with 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter.

Expect both sets of numbers to draw interest.

Prelim February inflation figures from Spain are also due out, which could draw more attention than usual. At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.17% to $1.2154.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day. At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.19% to $1.3989.

For the USD

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. January inflation and personal spending figures are due out later today.

Other stats include business inventories, Chicago PMI, trade data, and finalized consumer sentiment figures. These are unlikely to have a material impact on the Dollar, however.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and from FOMC members will also need monitoring.


AUD/USD: Is this the end of the positive phase? – UOB

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that AUD ‘could continue to rise but in view of the still overbought conditions, it is unlikely able to maintain a foothold above the major resistance at 0.8000’. While AUD rose to a high of 0.8005, the subsequent sharp sell-off came as a surprise (AUD dropped to 0.7823 after NY close). The rapid decline appears to be overdone but there is room for AUD to test 0.7800 first before the current weakness should stabilize. Resistance is at 0.7880 followed by 0.7925.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a positive view in AUD for more than 2 weeks now. In our latest narrative from yesterday (25 Feb, spot at 0.7970), we noted that ‘overbought shorter-term conditions could slow the pace of advance but a break of 0.8000 would not be surprising and would shift the focus to 0.8030’. AUD subsequently cracked 0.8000 (high of 0.8005) before staging a surprising sharp sell-off. The break of our ‘strong support’ at 0.7870 indicates that the positive phase in AUD has come to an end. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. That said, the near-term bias is titled to the downside but for now, any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.7750/0.7950 range.”


GBP/USD could see 1.3850 revisited – UOB

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘upward pressure has waned and GBP is likely to trade sideways between 1.4080 and 1.4220’. We did not anticipate the

sudden and sharp sell-off in GBP to an overnight low of 1.4001 (GBP extended its decline after Asian opening). Further weakness is not ruled out but oversold conditions suggest the support at 1.3900 is unlikely to come into the picture (minor support is at 1.3935). Resistance is at 1.4030 followed by 1.4080.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “After GBP breached 1.4150 two days ago (24 Feb, spot at 1.4170), we highlighted that ‘the focus has shifted to 1.4300’. We did not anticipate the overnight sharp sell-off that easily cracked our ‘strong support’ level of 1.4020. The break of the ‘strong support’ indicates that the positive phase in GBP that started about 2-1/2 weeks ago has come to an abrupt end. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a corrective pullback. At this stage, any pullback is likely limited to a test of 1.3850. On the upside, 1.4110 is acting as a ‘strong resistance’ level.”


USD/CHF Price Analysis: Ready for a bumpy north-run, 0.9100 guards immediate upside

USD/CHF picks up bids around 0.9060 while heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss currency pair attacks the familiar region surrounding the intraday high amid bullish MACD.

A sustained upside clearance of the early-month top joins bullish MACD and two ascending trend channels to back the USD/CHF buyers.

However, the road to the north has many speed-breakers wherein the resistance line of the longer channel, at 0.9100 now, restricts the quote’s nearby rise.

Even if the USD/CHF bulls manage to cross 0.9100, life won’t be easy as the upper limit of the two-week-old ascending channel and 200-day SMA, respectively around 0.9115 and 0.9135 respectively, will challenge the further upside

Alternatively, short-term sellers will seek a clear break of 0.9040, comprising the early month top, to challenge immediate channel’s support, currently around 0.8990. However, the USD/CHF bears won’t be serious until the quote drops below the multi-week-old rising channel’s lower line, at 0.8900 now. Also acting as a downside filter is the monthly low near 0.8870.

Overall, USD/CHF remains on the firm footing but the upside moves are likely to be capped.


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