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It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Stats will put the EUR, the Pound, and the U.S Dollar in focus today. COVID-19 news will need tracking, however.
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. German business sentiment figures for March are due out later this morning.
While private sector activity has picked up in March, concerns over COVID-19 may impact sentiment next month, however.
Expect EUR sensitivity to the numbers.
4th quarter GDP numbers from Spain are also due out but should have a muted impact on the EUR.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09775% to $1.1.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Retail sales figures for February are due out. With the UK in lockdown mode, however, the markets aren’t expecting great numbers.
We can therefore expect some Pound resilience to any weak numbers following the BoE’s optimistic outlook on the economic recovery.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.3747.
For the Usd
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. The FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index figures are due out along with personal spending numbers for February.
Inflation remains a key area of interest for the markets as does consumption, so expect the numbers to influence.
Other stats include trade data and finalized consumer sentiment figures that should have a muted impact on the markets
Look for the upside bias to continue as long as the USD/JPY holds above the pivot at 108.85
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Trader reaction to the pivot at 108.851 determines today’s direction.
Look for the upside bias to continue as long as the USD/JPY holds above the pivot at 108.851. If this is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a rally into 109.362. Taking out this level could trigger a further rally into the June 5, 2020 main top at 109.849. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 111.715 a potential near-term upside target.6
A sustained move under 108.851 will be a sign of weakness. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 108.407, followed by 108.340 and 108.230.
EUR/USD – 1.1774
Yesterday’s resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month low at 1.1762 (New York) suggests euro would remain under pressure and yield further weakness after initial consolidation, however, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1710/15 and risk has increased for a minor correction to occur later today or Monday.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1827 (Thursday high) signals temporary bottom is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.1850 but reckon 1.1870/75 should cap upside.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in European morning, pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, street forecast for Mar is 93.2 vs prev. reading of 92.4, a lower than expected reading will triffer renewed euro selling.
The European Council will hold a meeting today n ECB President Lagarde will participate in the Euro Summi
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