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26 November 2020

Economic Data, the ECB, and Brexit Put the EUR and the Pound in Focus

Economic data and the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes will put the EUR in the spotlight. For the Pound, Brexit updates will be key.

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar were back in action in the early part of the day.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Trade figures were in focus in the early hours. In October, the annual trade surplus widened from NZ$1,710m to a 28-year high NZ$2,190m in the year ended October 2020. Month-on-month, the trade deficit narrowed from NZ$1,017m to NZ$1,000m.

According to NZ Stats:

• Annual imports fell NZ$6.5bn (10%) to NZ$58bn in the year ended October 2020.

• The decline in imports was attributed to restrictions on international and domestic travel to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• In the same period, exports rose by NZ$734m (1.2%) to NZ$60bn.

• Monthly imports fell by NZ$759m (13%) to NZ$5.3bn in October 2020 compared with October 2019. A slide in the imports of mechanical machinery and equipment weighed.

• Exports fell NZ$222m (4.4%) to NZ$4.8bn in October 2020 compared with October 2019.

• The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70039 to $0.70044 upon release of the data. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.01% to $0.7008.

For the Aussie Dollar:

Private new capital expenditure fell by 3.00% in the 3rd quarter, following a 5.9% slide in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecast a 1.5% decline.

According to the ABS:

By total Capex volume, transport, postal, and warehousing fell by 19.1%. Construction (-16.8%) and information media and telecommunications (-15.0%) also saw marked declines.

Wholesale trade (+10.6%) saw the largest increase in new capital expenditure.

Estimate 4 for 2020-21 is A$104,984m, which is up by 6.3% from Estimate 3 for 2020-21.

Buildings and structures fell by 3.7%, with equipment, plant, and machinery expenditure declining by 2.2%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73656 to $0.73652 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.03% to $0.7363.


At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.12% to ¥104.33 against the U.S Dollar.




The Day Ahead for the EUR:

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. From Germany, GfK Consumer Climate figures for November are due out. While the EUR tends to respond to the numbers, any downside move may be muted by the latest COVID-19 vaccine news.

Consumer confidence is likely to get a boost from hopes of an imminent COVID-19 vaccine that would support an easing of containment measures.

From the ECB, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes are due out later in the day. We can expect some EUR sensitivity as the markets look for clues on what policy moves are likely next month.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit and COVID-19 news will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.10% to $1.1929.

For the Pound:

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out, leaving the Pound in the hands of Brexit and market risk sentiment.

Brexit negotiations are set to resume and there has been plenty of chatter of an imminent deal.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.13% to $1.3397.

Across the Pond:

It’s a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar, with the U.S markets closed for Thanksgiving.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 91.927.

For the Loonie:

It’s another quiet day on the economic data front. There are no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of COVID-19 news updates and crude oil prices.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 12% to C$1.2992 against the U.S Dollar.

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