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Economic data from Germany and the U.S will influence. Expect the FED and news updates from Capitol Hill to be key, however. COVID-19 news will also need tracking…
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate figures for February will be in focus later this morning.
Following news of vaccine supply shortages and extended lockdown measures, a marked fall in consumer confidence would weigh on the EUR.
Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 updates to continue to influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was flat at $1.2160.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.
COVID-19 news will also influence, however. A continued rise in vaccination rates and fall in infection rates should support the Pound. Any further updates on the new strains and effectiveness of vaccines will also need monitoring.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.3731.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. December durable goods and core durable goods orders are due out of the U.S later today.
Expect the core durable goods figures to have the greatest impact, with forecasts positive for riskier assets.
Late in the day, the FED will also deliver its first monetary policy decision of the year. With the FED expected to leave rates unchanged, expect the rate statement and press conference to be the key drivers.
Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and COVID-19 updates will also remain in focus, however.
EUR/USD is stuck near the 20 EMA level.
EUR/USD is currently trying to settle above the 20 EMA at 1.2160. If this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will get to the test of the next resistance level at 1.2175. If EUR/USD gets above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2220. A successful test of the resistance at 1.2220 will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2250.
On the support side, the nearest support level for EUR/USD is located at the 50 EMA at 1.2125. EUR/USD has already made several attempts to settle below this level in recent trading sessions but these attempts yielded no results.
In case EUR/USD declines below the 50 EMA at 1.2125, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 1.2080. A successful test of the support at 1.2080 will push EUR/USD towards the support at the recent lows at 1.2060.
The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 30823.
March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower early Wednesday as investors continued to pore over earnings results from Microsoft, released after the close the previous session. Meanwhile, a cautious tone is developing ahead of the release of earnings from Apple, Facebook and Tesla later in the day and the latest monetary policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early in the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 30823.
A sustained move over 30823 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the record high at 31188. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
A sustained move under 30823 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into a series of potential levels at 30474, 30457 and 30253. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 29760 the first target.
AUD/USD fizzles the upside momentum that recently refreshed the weekly top. The quote marks the day’s low of 0.7735, down 0.13% intraday, while reversing the post-Aussie CPI-led run-up.
In doing so, the quote portrayed evening star bearish candlestick on the hourly (1H) chart, which in turn joins weakening MACD and RSI to keep the AUD/USD sellers hopeful.
However, a 200-HMA level of 0.7725 is likely to offer a tough barrier for the bear’s entry targeting the monthly low around 0.7640. Also acting as a downside filter is January 18 bottom surrounding 0.7660 and the 0.7700 threshold.
On the flip side, a clear break of the recent high near 0.7765 defies the bearish candlestick formation and will restore the upside momentum targeting the fresh multi-month high above the 0.7800 round-figure.
However, the monthly top near 0.7820 and January 21 peak surrounding 0.7785 can probe the AUD/USD buyers during the run-up to refresh the highest level since April 2018.
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