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“The UK and EU have confirmed they have reached a deal on the goods trade, so as of January 1st, the UK is outside of the EU customs union and single market and will begin to negotiate new bilateral trade agreements with other nations. While this does now provide for zero-tariff trade, firms will need to adjust to the specific rules of origin requirements to take advantage of that. As expected, this deal does not include the service sector like financial services. Though we could still see some further negotiations next year on various sectors given they were outside of the discussions here, most firms will require new branches in the EU in order to maintain access in many service areas.”
“We do not see this as any game-changer for markets. A deal was in the price and the specifics are unlikely to have any bearing on the direction of markets from here. While GBP is very cheap across many of our valuation models and much of the negotiation-linked uncertainty can fade, there is still significant economic underperformance and disruptions to follow early in 2021.”
“We start the year looking to sell GBP on rallies, especially on the non-USD crosses. Overall USD weakness may be able to help cable drift higher through the year, but our current forecasts do not see GBP/USD sustaining gains higher than current levels until the second half of 2021.”
The GBP/USD pair gained some strong positive traction on Friday and moved back above the 1.3600 mark as the Brexit deal announcement and US stimulus remained supportive, albeit failed ahead of multi-year tops touched earlier this December. The cable held steady above mid-1.3500s during the Asian session and is unlikely to make any big moves in either direction amid holiday-thinned trading, FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani briefs
“Bulls might now wait for a sustained move beyond the recent swing highs, around the 1.3620-25 region, before positioning for an extension of the recent upward trajectory. The momentum might then push the pair further towards the 1.3700 round-figure mark for the first time since May 2018. On the flip side, the key 1.3500 psychological mark might now protect the immediate downside and is closely followed by the 1.3480-75 horizontal support.”
The direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 103.388
The direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 103.388.
A sustained move under 103.388 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the weakness to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 102.886. We could see a steep break if this level fails as support.
A sustained move over 103.388 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the short-covering rally to possibly extend into the minor top at 103.890. If buyers can take out this level then look for a possible acceleration into the short-term retracement zone at 104.282 to 104.611.
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