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28 September 2020
EUR/USD: No signs of receding demand for safety, 1.15 at sight
EUR/USD plummeted to 1.1615, its lowest level since late July. The pair has posted an interim top at 1.2011 and heads lower, with 1.1500 at sight, as the greenback’s positive momentum will likely extend heading into the next Nonfarm Payroll report release, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports.
Key quotes
“The Old Continent is in the middle of a second wave, with new restrictions announced in France, Spain and the UK. The pandemic continues to take its toll on economic progress, with softening macroeconomic figures indicating that any possible recovery would take much longer than initially estimated.”
“More clues about the economic health of major economies will come this week, starting on Tuesday, with the EU September Economic Sentiment Indicator, and the preliminary estimate of September German inflation. About this last, its worth noting that central banks are keeping rates at record lows and refraining from announcing more stimulus, while inflationary pressures are far from enough to trigger a response from policymakers. The EU will also publish its September CPI estimates, while Germany will unveil August Retail Sales on Wednesday.”
“In the US, the presidential debate will take center stage. The format for the first debate will be six 15-minute time segments dedicated to different topics, such as the economy, coronavirus, riots and the Supreme Court, among other things.”
“The US Federal Reserve has highlighted the need for supporting the battered employment sector. September´s Nonfarm Payroll report will be out next Friday. At the time being, expectations are of 875K new jobs added in the month, quite a poor figure, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 8.3% from the current 8.4%. Average hourly earnings are seen up by 0.4% MoM.”
“From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair seems to have reached an interim top at 1.2011, now biased lower. In the long-term, however, the ongoing decline seems corrective. In the weekly chart, the pair continues developing above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA maintaining its bullish slope above the larger ones. Technical indicators, however, turned sharply lower from overbought levels, and while still above their midlines, they signal solid selling interest.”
European Stock Higher as M&A Deals Boost Confidence
European stock markets traded strongly higher Monday, helped by positive Chinese data, while M&A deals suggested returning confidence to the corporate sector.
At 3:35 AM ET (0735 GMT), the DAX in Germany traded 2.4% higher, the CAC 40 in France rose 1.9% and the U.K.’s FTSE index climbed 1.6%.
Data over the weekend showed an increase in profits at China’s industrial companies for the fourth consecutive month in August, suggesting that the economic recovery in the second-largest economy in the world was well entrenched.
Adding to the optimism was news of more M&A deals within the region.
ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) stock rose 5.7% after Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), the largest U.S. producer of iron ore pellets, agreed to buy its U.S. assets for about $1.4 billion.
William Hill (LON:WMH) stock fell 12% to 272 pence, after soaring over 40% on Friday when it confirmed it had received proposals from U.S.-based private equity firm Apollo and casino giant Caesars (NASDAQ:CZR) Entertainment. Caesars said Monday that it may offer 272 pence per share, valuing the company at £2.9 billion.
HSBC (LON:HSBA) climbed 10% after China’s Ping An Insurance increased its stake to 8% from 7.95%, seeing a bargain after the bank’s stock last week fell to the lowest since 1995.
Elsewhere, Diageo (LON:DGE) rose 5.5% after the world’s largest liquor maker said performance has improved across the board, driven in large part by its U.S. business. Siemens Energy, meanwhile, got off to a sluggish start as the German engineering giant spun off its turbine business, which combines both renewables and its struggling thermal power division.
Broader market gains could quickly come under pressure again as expectations for economic growth in Europe and further afield falter on the back of a resurgence of Covid-19 cases.
“It is visible from card data and other high frequency measures that the case count is important for consumption, no matter whether it is rational or not,” Nordea analysts wrote in a research note. “We have another 4-6 challenging weeks ahead of us in Europe since the virus spread could further accelerate when gatherings tend to move indoors during the autumn.”
Investors will also be keeping a wary eye on the latest Brexit talks, with the final round of scheduled discussions between the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and his British counterpart, David Frost, beginning in Brussels on Tuesday.
Oil prices weakened Monday, with the major oil benchmarks on course to end the month lower, for the first time in many months, as rising coronavirus cases threaten hopes of a recovery in demand.
U.S. crude futures traded 0.7% lower at $39.97 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.6% to $42.14. Brent is on track for its first monthly loss in six while WTI is headed for its first monthly drop since April.
Elsewhere, gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,863.30/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.1628.
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