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market review 30 April 21

30 April 21

Dollar bounces ahead of busy end to April, eurozone GDP, US inflation data stand out

Global shares and S&P 500 futures are down in what seems like profit-taking after major US indexes hit new highs on Thursday. The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI missed estimates with 51.1, below estimates.
On Wall Street, Amazon reported earnings that beat estimates, joining a long list of most robust figures published by large companies. Reports from banks are eyed on Friday.
US Gross Domestic Product came out at 6.4% annualized for the first quarter, within estimates and dragged down by a sharp drawdown in inventories.
US President Joe Biden has been promoting his twin plans worth a total of $4 trillion, yet investors are skeptical about what could pass Congress.
The US dollar is edging higher as 10-year Treasury yields have stabilized around 1.65% off the lows. GBP/USD is below 1.3950 and EUR/USD is hovering above 1.21.
Eurozone data: French GDP beat estimates with a quarterly increase of 0.4% in the first quarter, the first in a big bulk of eurozone growth and inflation figures. Germany is projected to report a squeeze of 1.5% in the first three months of the year, and the entire currency bloc is forecast to print -0.8%.
Preliminary inflation estimates for April are predicted to show a pickup in the headline Consumer Price Index from 1.3% to 1.6%, partly owing to base-effect. Core CPI is expected to drop. France and Portugal are the latest European countries to announce a loosening of restrictions as Europe advances with its vaccination scheme and COVID-19 cases fall.
Canada publishes monthly GDP figures for February, which are estimated to show an ongoing recovery.

AUD/USD: Risks keep pointing to the upside – UOB

24-hour view: “Our view for AUD yesterday was that it ‘could breach 0.7815 but the next major resistance at 0.7850 is likely out of reach’. While AUD rose to 0.7818, the subsequent pullback was relatively sharp as it dropped to 0.7751 during NY hours. The sharp pullback appears to be overdone and AUD is unlikely to weaken further. For today, AUD is more likely to consolidate and trade within a 0.7755/0.7805 range.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “We continue to hold the same view from yesterday (29 Apr, spot at 0.7800). As highlighted, ‘the risk is shifting to the upside but at this stage, AUD may find it difficult to break the solid resistance at 0.7850’. On the downside, a breach of 0.7740 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the upside risk has dissipated.”

Gold Futures: Extra losses on the cards

Open interest in Gold futures markets shrunk for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, this time by 839 contracts considering flash data from CME Group. On the other hand, volume rose for the third straight session, now by around 36.6K contracts.
Gold faces minor support around $1,745
Gold prices tested multi-day lows on Thursday, although they managed to rebound afterwards. This price action was in tandem with declining open interest, removing legs from the recovery and leaving the door open to further losses in the very near-term. A deeper pullback is expected to meet interim support at the 50-day SMA, today near $1,745 per ounce troy.

Crude Oil Futures: Further upside on the cards

CME Group’s preliminary figures for Crude Oil futures markets noted open interest increased for yet another session on Thursday, now by around 12.5K contracts. Volume followed suit and rose by more than 5K contracts, its fifth build in a row.
WTI now looks to YTD highs near $68.00
Prices of the WTI extended the recovery on Thursday and clinched new monthly peaks beyond the $65.00 mark per barrel. The move was amidst rising open interest and volume, hinting at the idea that further gains look likely in the very near-term. Against that, the next target of note now shifts to the 2021 highs just below $68.00 per barrel.

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